Historical Archive
US Recession Probability (Smoothed), Year-by-Year History
Complete historical archive of US Recession Probability (Smoothed) from 2000 to 2026. Select a year for full-year performance, monthly breakdown, and event context. Chauvet-Piger smoothed US recession probability from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model; probabilities above 80% reliably coincide with NBER-dated recessions.
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