Historical Year Data · 2020
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2020
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2020 at 0.44% and closed at 0.12%, a -72.73% move for the year. The high of 100.00% was reached on March 1, and the low of 0.00% on August 1.
Open
0.44%
2020-01
Close
0.12%
12 data points
High
100.00%
Mar 1
Low
0.00%
Aug 1
Full Year Change
-72.73%
2019 Change
-43.18%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.44% | 0.44% | 0.44% | 0.44% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.26% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| Sep | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | +0.00% |
| Oct | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | +0.00% |
| Nov | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.28% | +0.00% |
| Dec | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | +0.00% |
Events During 2020
2020 COVID Crash & Recovery
Deflation
February–April 2020
The fastest 30%+ decline in S&P 500 history, followed by the fastest recovery. COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented monetary and fiscal intervention.
2019 Hong Kong Protests & Capital Outflows
Mixed
June 2019 – June 2020
Hong Kong's 2019 protests over an extradition bill and Beijing's 2020 National Security Law reshaped the territory's role as Asia's financial hub. Capital outflows, reduced multinational presence, and regulatory divergence from the West had durable effects on regional finance.
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