Historical Year Data · 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2026 at 0.24% and closed at 1.82%, a +658.33% move for the year. The high of 1.82% was reached on March 1, and the low of 0.24% on January 1.
Open
0.24%
2026-01
Close
1.82%
3 data points
High
1.82%
Mar 1
Low
0.24%
Jan 1
Full Year Change
+658.33%
2025 Change
-72.41%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.24% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 1.82% | 1.82% | 1.82% | 1.82% | +0.00% |
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