Historical Year Data · 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2026
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2026 at 0.34% and closed at 0.44%, a +29.41% move for the year. The high of 0.46% was reached on March 1, and the low of 0.30% on February 1.
Open
0.34%
2026-01
Close
0.44%
4 data points
High
0.46%
Mar 1
Low
0.30%
Feb 1
Full Year Change
+29.41%
2025 Change
-31.03%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.34% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.44% | 0.44% | 0.44% | 0.44% | +0.00% |
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