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Historical Year Data · 2013

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2013

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2013 at 0.14% and closed at 0.18%, a +28.57% move for the year. The high of 0.46% was reached on July 1, and the low of 0.04% on November 1.

Open
0.14%
2013-01
Close
0.18%
12 data points
High
0.46%
Jul 1
Low
0.04%
Nov 1
Full Year Change
+28.57%
2012 Change
+250.00%

Monthly Breakdown

MonthOpenCloseHighLowChange
Jan0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%+0.00%
Feb0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%+0.00%
Mar0.16%0.16%0.16%0.16%+0.00%
Apr0.16%0.16%0.16%0.16%+0.00%
May0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%+0.00%
Jun0.30%0.30%0.30%0.30%+0.00%
Jul0.46%0.46%0.46%0.46%+0.00%
Aug0.08%0.08%0.08%0.08%+0.00%
Sep0.10%0.10%0.10%0.10%+0.00%
Oct0.12%0.12%0.12%0.12%+0.00%
Nov0.04%0.04%0.04%0.04%+0.00%
Dec0.18%0.18%0.18%0.18%+0.00%

Events During 2013

2013 Taper Tantrum
Reflation
May–September 2013

When Fed Chair Ben Bernanke suggested tapering QE in May 2013, 10Y Treasury yields nearly doubled, emerging markets cracked, and carry trades unwound violently.

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Related Metrics

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
2013
Leading Index for US
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OECD Composite Leading Indicator
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CVRP, Convex Recession Probability
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Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)
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Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
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