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Economic Analysis
Institutional-grade macro analysis generated daily from live central bank data, CFTC positioning, commodity markets, and financial news.
Institutional-grade macro analysis generated daily from live central bank data, CFTC positioning, commodity markets, and financial news.
This scenario tracks a Bank of Japan normalisation that forces a global carry-trade unwind. The trigger condition has already been met, the BoJ raised to 1.00% in June, but the yen remains historically weak, so the risk has shifted from thesis to timing. We hold the probability elevated at 42%.
This scenario tracks a US-China/EU trade escalation large enough to disrupt supply chains and lift input costs. With China targeting US rare-earth firms, a Section 122 tariff cliff on 24 July, and a 60-day tariff pause expiring in August, the escalation is already underway through the supply chain. We hold the probability at 48%.
OPEC+ has raised its July quota by 188,000 barrels a day, its fourth increase since April, even as the Strait of Hormuz stays largely closed and Gulf tanker traffic runs at a fraction of normal. The extra barrels cannot physically reach the market, so the oil price is hostage to a single geopolitical variable, with a violent move waiting on either side.
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