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Wed, May 20
Gold down 1.8% in 24h
Gold moved down 1.8% (-$84.00) — notable move worth monitoring
Tue, May 19
Gold down 1.5% in 24h
Gold moved down 1.5% (-$68.70) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.1% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.1% (-$5.69) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 1.9% in 24h
Gold moved down 1.9% (-$87.60) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold up 1.6% in 24h
Gold moved up 1.6% (+$73.60) — notable move worth monitoring
Sat, May 16
IWM down 2.4% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.4% (-$6.85) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.5% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.5% (-$1.26) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.4% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.4% (-$6.85) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.5% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.5% (-$1.26) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.4% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.4% (-$6.85) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.5% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.5% (-$1.26) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 1.6% in 24h
Gold moved down 1.6% (-$74.90) — notable move worth monitoring
2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% — crosses above 4
[DGS2:4] 2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% threshold crossed. Current value: 4.00. Previous side: below. This crossing has historically been associated with significant market regime transitions.
10Y Real Yield (TIPS) above 2% — crosses above 2
[DFII10:2] 10Y Real Yield (TIPS) above 2% threshold crossed. Current value: 2.00. Previous side: below. This crossing has historically been associated with significant market regime transitions.
Fri, May 15
IWM down 2.4% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.4% (-$6.85) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.5% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.5% (-$1.26) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 2.4% in 24h
Gold moved down 2.4% (-$111.80) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.2% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.2% (-$6.17) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.8% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.8% (-$1.51) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 2.7% in 24h
Gold moved down 2.7% (-$126.60) — notable move worth monitoring
IWM down 2.2% in 24h
IWM moved down 2.2% (-$6.13) — notable move worth monitoring
TLT down 1.8% in 24h
TLT moved down 1.8% (-$1.50) — notable move worth monitoring
HYG down 0.5% in 24h
HYG moved down 0.5% (-$0.41) — notable move worth monitoring
SMALL-LARGE CAP DIVERGENCE resolved — spread normalized
[small-large-cap] Divergence transition: CONFIRMED -> NONE. Z-score: -1.1. IWM rising while SPY rising. Historical hit rate: 64% over median 20 trading days. Implication: Risk appetite narrowing, late-cycle breadth signal
Gold down 3.1% in 24h
Gold moved down 3.1% (-$147.00) — major move exceeding normal range
Gold down 2.9% in 24h
Gold moved down 2.9% (-$135.90) — notable move worth monitoring
2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% — crosses below 4
[DGS2:4] 2Y Treasury Yield crosses 4% threshold crossed. Current value: 3.98. Previous side: above. This crossing has historically been associated with significant market regime transitions.
Gold down 2.1% in 24h
Gold moved down 2.1% (-$101.10) — notable move worth monitoring
Gold down 1.7% in 24h
Gold moved down 1.7% (-$78.70) — notable move worth monitoring
CREDIT-EQUITY DIVERGENCE emerging — HY Spread falling while SPY rising
[credit-equity] Divergence transition: NONE -> EMERGING. Z-score: -1.6. HY Spread falling while SPY rising. Historical hit rate: 73% over median 18 trading days. Implication: BEARISH equities on 2-6 week horizon
Wed, May 13
Gold's $4,700 Anomaly: Why Disinflation Did Not Kill the Rally
Gold traded near $4,700 in mid-May 2026 even after the inflation shock of 2022 faded and real yields stayed positive. The clean explanation is not a resurrected CPI trade. It is a reserve-allocation trade: central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes a year from 2022 through 2024 and another 863 tonnes in 2025, changing who sets the marginal price.
The Fed's 8-4 Split Is a Coordination Problem
The April 28-29, 2026 FOMC vote was not a normal hold. It was an 8-4 decision in which one voter wanted an immediate cut and three others supported the hold while rejecting the statement's easing bias. That is not a simple hawk-versus-dove split. It is a communication problem: the committee can agree on today's rate while disagreeing on what today's language commits it to tomorrow.
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