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Historical Year Data · 2014

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2014

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2014 at 0.20% and closed at 0.68%, a +240.00% move for the year. The high of 0.68% was reached on December 1, and the low of 0.02% on February 1.

Open
0.20%
2014-01
Close
0.68%
12 data points
High
0.68%
Dec 1
Low
0.02%
Feb 1
Full Year Change
+240.00%
2013 Change
+28.57%

Monthly Breakdown

MonthOpenCloseHighLowChange
Jan0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%+0.00%
Feb0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%+0.00%
Mar0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%+0.00%
Apr0.10%0.10%0.10%0.10%+0.00%
May0.06%0.06%0.06%0.06%+0.00%
Jun0.08%0.08%0.08%0.08%+0.00%
Jul0.06%0.06%0.06%0.06%+0.00%
Aug0.12%0.12%0.12%0.12%+0.00%
Sep0.08%0.08%0.08%0.08%+0.00%
Oct0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%+0.00%
Nov0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%+0.00%
Dec0.68%0.68%0.68%0.68%+0.00%

Events During 2014

2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
Deflation
June 2014 – February 2016

Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003.

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Related Metrics

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
2014
Leading Index for US
2014
OECD Composite Leading Indicator
2014
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability
2014
Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)
2014
Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
2014

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