Historical Year Data · 2025

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2025

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2025 at 0.58% and closed at 0.40%, a -31.03% move for the year. The high of 0.82% was reached on October 1, and the low of 0.20% on February 1.

Open

0.58%

2025-01

0.40%

12 data points

High

0.82%

Oct 1

Low

0.20%

Feb 1

Full Year Change

-31.03%

2024 Change

-89.36%

Monthly Breakdown

Month	Open	Close	High	Low	Change
Jan	0.58%	0.58%	0.58%	0.58%	+0.00%
Feb	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	+0.00%
Mar	0.24%	0.24%	0.24%	0.24%	+0.00%
Apr	0.54%	0.54%	0.54%	0.54%	+0.00%
May	0.68%	0.68%	0.68%	0.68%	+0.00%
Jun	0.44%	0.44%	0.44%	0.44%	+0.00%
Jul	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%	+0.00%
Aug	0.72%	0.72%	0.72%	0.72%	+0.00%
Sep	0.66%	0.66%	0.66%	0.66%	+0.00%
Oct	0.82%	0.82%	0.82%	0.82%	+0.00%
Nov	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%	+0.00%
Dec	0.40%	0.40%	0.40%	0.40%	+0.00%

Events During 2025

2025 US Tariff Shock

Stagflation

February – April 2025

The Trump administration imposed reciprocal tariffs averaging 25% on most trading partners in February-April 2025. Markets priced the most aggressive trade policy shift since 1930, with ripple effects across currencies, bond yields, and supply chains.

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