Historical Year Data · 2022
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2022
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2022 at 1.00% and closed at 1.40%, a +40.00% move for the year. The high of 1.40% was reached on December 1, and the low of 0.30% on February 1.
Open
1.00%
2022-01
Close
1.40%
12 data points
High
1.40%
Dec 1
Low
0.30%
Feb 1
Full Year Change
+40.00%
2021 Change
+5700.00%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.34% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.76% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.94% | 0.94% | 0.94% | 0.94% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | +0.00% |
| Sep | 0.52% | 0.52% | 0.52% | 0.52% | +0.00% |
| Oct | 0.68% | 0.68% | 0.68% | 0.68% | +0.00% |
| Nov | 1.20% | 1.20% | 1.20% | 1.20% | +0.00% |
| Dec | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.40% | +0.00% |
Events During 2022
2022 Fed Rate Hiking Cycle
Stagflation
March–December 2022
The Fed raised rates 425bps in 2022, the fastest hiking cycle since the Volcker era. The 60/40 portfolio posted its worst year since 1937.
2022 UK Mini-Budget & Gilt Crisis
Stagflation
September 23 – October 14, 2022
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's September 23, 2022 mini-budget triggered a collapse in sterling and gilts. LDI pension strategies faced forced liquidation. The Bank of England intervened to prevent financial instability.
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