Historical Year Data · 2006

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2006

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2006 at 0.18% and closed at 0.10%, a -44.44% move for the year. The high of 0.32% was reached on May 1, and the low of 0.10% on December 1.

Open

0.18%

2006-01

0.10%

12 data points

High

0.32%

May 1

Low

0.10%

Dec 1

Full Year Change

-44.44%

2005 Change

+233.33%

Monthly Breakdown

Month	Open	Close	High	Low	Change
Jan	0.18%	0.18%	0.18%	0.18%	+0.00%
Feb	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	+0.00%
Mar	0.16%	0.16%	0.16%	0.16%	+0.00%
Apr	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%	+0.00%
May	0.32%	0.32%	0.32%	0.32%	+0.00%
Jun	0.24%	0.24%	0.24%	0.24%	+0.00%
Jul	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%	+0.00%
Aug	0.12%	0.12%	0.12%	0.12%	+0.00%
Sep	0.18%	0.18%	0.18%	0.18%	+0.00%
Oct	0.16%	0.16%	0.16%	0.16%	+0.00%
Nov	0.12%	0.12%	0.12%	0.12%	+0.00%
Dec	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	+0.00%

Events During 2006

2006 US Housing Market Peak

Goldilocks

June 2006 – February 2007

US home prices peaked in summer 2006 after a 106% rally from 2000. Subprime mortgage underwriting collapsed in late 2006, setting up the 2008 crisis. The peak is the canonical example of a market top visible only in retrospect.

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