US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2002
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2002 at 2.50% and closed at 0.98%, a -60.80% move for the year. The high of 2.50% was reached on January 1, and the low of 0.30% on May 1.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.70% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.34% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.66% | 0.66% | 0.66% | 0.66% | +0.00% |
| Sep | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.62% | +0.00% |
| Oct | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | 0.54% | +0.00% |
| Nov | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| Dec | 0.98% | 0.98% | 0.98% | 0.98% | +0.00% |
Events During 2002
The Nikkei 225 peaked at 38,957 on December 29, 1989, then fell 82% over 13 years. Japan entered its "lost decades" of deflation, zero rates, and structural stagnation that still shapes global markets today.
Eleven European Union members locked exchange rates on January 1, 1999, creating the euro as a virtual currency. Physical notes and coins circulated from January 1, 2002. The euro became the largest monetary experiment since Bretton Woods.
The Nasdaq Composite peaked at 5,048 on March 10, 2000 and fell 78% over 31 months. Internet companies went bankrupt en masse. The crash reshaped venture capital, corporate governance, and accounting standards.
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