Scenario Analysis
What Happens When...
Educational guides explaining how markets react to key economic events. Each scenario includes historical context, asset-by-asset impact analysis, and live data — so you can see where the trigger metric stands right now.
What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?
What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal explained with live data.
Read analysis →What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?
What happens when the VIX fear gauge spikes above 30? Historical analysis of extreme volatility events, market reactions, and contrarian opportunities.
Read analysis →What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?
What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and market playbooks for Fed easing cycles.
Read analysis →What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates?
What happens to markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Rate hike cycle impacts on stocks, bonds, housing, and crypto explained.
Read analysis →What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot?
What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portfolio positioning explained.
Read analysis →What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers?
What happens when the Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers? Every historical instance, market impacts, and what it means for your portfolio.
Read analysis →What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out?
What happens when junk bond credit spreads widen past 500 bps? Credit crises, contagion risk, and the flight to quality explained with live data.
Read analysis →What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply?
What happens when the US dollar surges? Impact on emerging markets, commodities, corporate earnings, and global financial stability.
Read analysis →What Happens When Oil Prices Spike?
What happens when oil prices spike? Inflation fears, consumer squeeze, recession risk, and the complex impact on stocks, bonds, and the dollar.
Read analysis →What Happens When the Housing Market Crashes?
What happens when US home prices crash? The wealth effect, banking stress, and cascading economic impacts of a housing downturn explained.
Read analysis →What Happens When Unemployment Rises?
What happens when the unemployment rate rises? Consumer spending impacts, market reactions, and the economic feedback loop explained.
Read analysis →What Happens When Gold Surges?
What happens when gold prices surge? The risk-off signal, inflation hedge demand, central bank buying, and portfolio implications explained.
Read analysis →What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?
What happens when Bitcoin crashes 30%+? Crypto contagion, risk-off cascades, and whether BTC drawdowns spill into traditional markets.
Read analysis →What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails?
What happens when Treasury auctions see weak demand? Fiscal dominance concerns, yield spikes, and the threat to the global financial system.
Read analysis →What Happens When Inflation Expectations De-Anchor?
What happens when long-term inflation expectations break above 3%? Fed credibility crisis, policy dilemma, and the risk of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral.
Read analysis →Get notified when these macro scenarios unfold. Daily analysis delivered to your inbox.
Explore Further
These scenario guides are educational and for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice. Historical patterns do not guarantee future results.