US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2012
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2012 at 0.04% and closed at 0.14%, a +250.00% move for the year. The high of 0.46% was reached on March 1, and the low of 0.04% on January 1.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.28% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.24% | +0.00% |
| Sep | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | +0.00% |
| Oct | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | +0.00% |
| Nov | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | +0.00% |
| Dec | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | +0.00% |
Events During 2012
Greece's debt revelation in October 2009 triggered a multi-year eurozone crisis that threatened the euro's survival. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy required emergency support. Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" in 2012 ended the acute phase.
ECB President Mario Draghi's July 26, 2012 speech in London ended the acute eurozone crisis. The commitment, backed by Outright Monetary Transactions, arrested peripheral yield spikes without buying a single bond.
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