ConvexTrade Macro
Geopolitical-economic intelligence briefings. We trace transmission mechanisms between world events and market consequences, the analytical layer between breaking news and sell-side research.
OPEC+ Adds Barrels It Cannot Ship as Hormuz Stays Closed
THESIS OPEC+ approved a fourth straight monthly quota increase for July 2026 — a nominal 188kb/d — continuing the unwind of the 1.65mb/d of cuts agreed in 2023. The decision is close to meaningless...
EU Holds Russian Oil Price Cap at $44.10, Widens Shadow-Fleet Ban
WHAT HAPPENED The European Commission moved in June 2026 to delay the scheduled revision of the Russian oil price cap to January 2027 and hold it at $44.10 per barrel, denying Moscow relief after t...
China Puts MP Materials on Export Blacklist, Squeezing US Magnet Supply
WHAT HAPPENED On 22 June 2026 China's Ministry of Commerce added ten US companies to its export-control list, naming rare-earth and magnet developers MP Materials and USA Rare Earth alongside eight...
Warsh Fed Drops Easing Bias as Dots Pivot to a 2026 Hike
THESIS Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair on 17 June 2026 marked a regime change in US monetary policy. The FOMC held the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, but stripp...
BoJ Lifts Rate to 1%, Highest Since 1995, Yet Yen Sits at 162
WHAT HAPPENED The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.00% from 0.75% at its 15-16 June 2026 meeting, the highest level since 1995, in a 7-1 vote with board member Asada dissenting for a hold....
Trump Threatens Iran Military Action Over Strait of Hormuz Access
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued a 72-hour ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to "take out Iran in one night" if Tehran fails to comply by Tuesday deadline. The explicit mi...
Trump Iran Strike Deadline Sends European Gas Futures Surging 3%
WHAT HAPPENED Trump administration issued a public deadline for military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, triggering immediate repricing across European energy markets. TTF gas future...
US-Israel strikes Kharg Island, threatening Iran's 90% crude export capacity.
WHAT HAPPENED US-Israeli forces conducted strikes against Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal, which handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude export capacity of roughly 700,000 barrels per day. The f...
Trump's Strait of Hormuz Ultimatum Triggers Oil Market Repricing of Supply Disruption Risk
WHAT HAPPENED President Trump has issued a time-bound ultimatum regarding the Strait of Hormuz, with unspecified enforcement consequences if the deadline expires. Oil futures have begun repricing s...
US Strike on Kharg Island Threatens Iran's Oil Export Capacity Amid Escalating Tensions
WHAT HAPPENED US forces struck Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal complex ahead of Trump's 8pm deadline, targeting critical export infrastructure that handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude export...
Trump Threatens Iranian Power Plants, Demands Strait of Hormuz Opening
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued explicit threats against Iranian power infrastructure and demanded immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tuesday designated as "Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day"...
Iran's Direct Missile Strikes on Israel Escalate Regional Conflict Beyond Proxy Operations
WHAT HAPPENED Iran launched direct missile strikes on Israeli civilian areas, hitting Ramat Hasharon and causing material damage to vehicles and infrastructure. The attack represents the first sust...
US-Israeli Strikes on Iran Trigger Regional Energy Infrastructure Reassessment
WHAT HAPPENED US and Israeli forces conducted coordinated strikes targeting Iranian military facilities in northern Iran, destroying buildings in Pardis province. The attacks represent direct milit...
Trump Threatens Iranian Infrastructure; Strait of Hormuz Closure Risk Escalates
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued explicit threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure within "four hours", specifically targeting bridges and power plants, whilst demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz...
US and Israeli forces strike Tehran directly, killing 15 civilians in major escalation
WHAT HAPPENED US-Israeli forces conducted direct military strikes on Tehran overnight, reportedly destroying a synagogue and killing 15 civilians across Iran. This marks the first confirmed US part...
Iran's Military Escalation Threatens Strait of Hormuz Oil Transit Chokepoint
WHAT HAPPENED Iran faces coordinated military strikes killing at least 15 people whilst retaliating against Israeli and Saudi targets, prompting infrastructure closures including a major bridge. Ir...
Trump Threatens Iran Power Plants as Hormuz Strait Closure Risk Escalates
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued explicit threats to target Iranian power plants while Iran escalated with threats to close the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing airstrikes that killed at least 15 people. Ir...
Israel Threatens Iranian Energy Infrastructure Strikes, Risking Global Oil Supply Disruption
WHAT HAPPENED Israeli officials signalled readiness to strike Iranian energy infrastructure if ongoing diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the nuclear standoff. Iran produces approximately 5.7% of g...
Trump Threatens Iran Strikes Over Strait of Hormuz Control
WHAT HAPPENED Trump threatened military strikes on Iranian infrastructure following the rescue of a US aviator, explicitly linking the action to Iranian interference with Strait of Hormuz navigatio...
Iran threatens Strait of Hormuz closure, crude futures surge on supply disruption fears
WHAT HAPPENED Iran has threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of an unspecified Trump administration deadline, escalating tensions in the world's most critical energy chokepoint. The stra...
Trump Threatens Iranian Infrastructure as Israel Escalates Military Operations Day 39
WHAT HAPPENED US President Trump issued explicit threats of "complete demolition" of Iranian infrastructure as Israel launched new strikes on day 39 of sustained military operations. The escalation...
Israel strikes Iran's South Pars gas complex, threatening regional energy supplies
WHAT HAPPENED Israel confirmed a strike on Iran's South Pars gas complex, the country's largest gas field producing approximately 500 million cubic metres daily. The facility accounts for roughly 1...
Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites trigger Middle East energy market volatility
WHAT HAPPENED Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian military facilities, marking the most direct confrontation between the nations in decades. The strikes focused on Revolutionary Guard installations...
Trump Threatens Iranian Power Plants, Risking Global Oil Supply Disruption
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued explicit threats to strike Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure, escalating tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran controls approximately 20% of global oil tr...
Trump threatens Iranian infrastructure attacks as Tehran rejects ceasefire deal
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued explicit threats targeting Iranian infrastructure as Tehran rejected a proposed ceasefire deal ahead of an unspecified deadline. The threats specifically mentioned attack...
US-Israeli Strike Hits Tehran Synagogue, Escalates Risk to Persian Gulf Energy Infrastructure
WHAT HAPPENED A US-Israeli projectile struck a synagogue in Tehran, marking the first direct military action on Iranian soil in the current conflict cycle. The strike represents a material escalati...
Trump Threatens Iranian Infrastructure Strikes Over Hormuz Strait Closure Risk
WHAT HAPPENED Trump issued public threats to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial shipping. The threat represents a credible escalation targe...
Iran Accuses US-Israel of Striking Defence Research Facility; Strait Disruption Risks Escalate
WHAT HAPPENED Iran alleges a US-Israeli strike on the Malek Ashtar University of Technology (MIT), a defence research institution in Isfahan, sharing imagery of damaged campus facilities. The facil...
US Intensifies Iran Strikes as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Peak Critically
WHAT HAPPENED US forces conducted intensified strikes on Iranian targets as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz reached critical levels, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirming more daily s...
Israel Strikes Iranian IRGC Facilities; Tehran Threatens Proportional Response
WHAT HAPPENED Israeli forces launched precision strikes against IRGC military facilities in Tehran and surrounding areas, marking the most direct Israeli military action on Iranian soil in decades....