Historical Year Data · 2016
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2016
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2016 at 1.04% and closed at 0.14%, a -86.54% move for the year. The high of 1.38% was reached on March 1, and the low of 0.14% on December 1.
Open
1.04%
2016-01
Close
0.14%
12 data points
High
1.38%
Mar 1
Low
0.14%
Dec 1
Full Year Change
-86.54%
2015 Change
-17.07%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.04% | 1.04% | 1.04% | 1.04% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 1.24% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 1.24% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 1.38% | 1.38% | 1.38% | 1.38% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.64% | 0.64% | 0.64% | 0.64% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.58% | 0.58% | 0.58% | 0.58% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.22% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | +0.00% |
| Sep | 0.36% | 0.36% | 0.36% | 0.36% | +0.00% |
| Oct | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| Nov | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | +0.00% |
| Dec | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | +0.00% |
Events During 2016
2016 Brexit Vote
Goldilocks
June 23–24, 2016
The UK voted to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016. The pound fell 10% overnight, its largest single-day drop since floating in 1971.
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
Deflation
June 2014 – February 2016
Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003.
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