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Macro intelligence, breaking economic signals, scenario playbooks, and asset class views — updated continuously.
Growth is accelerating alongside rising inflation. Commodities and cyclical assets benefit; bonds face pressure.
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Latest Analysis
USMCA Is Dead: What Greer's Canada Gambit Costs You
Washington's refusal to renew North America's trade framework is a supply-chain tax hiding in a diplomatic headline.
Read analysis →The BoJ Trigger Has Fired. The Carry Unwind Has Not
The Bank of Japan is at 1%, its highest since 1995, yet the yen sits near 162. The scenario is no longer about whether Japan normalises, but when the stretched carry snaps.
The Trigger Has Already Fired This scenario was written around a single threshold: the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate above 0.5% or materially accelerating its exit from yield-curve control. Th…
Continue reading →Tracked Scenarios
View all →Energy Supply Shock
A major disruption (>2M bbl/d equivalent) to global energy supply through geopolitical conflict, sanctions enforcement, or infrastructure failure, driving Brent above $100 and triggering secondary inflation effects in importing economies.
BOJ Policy Normalization
The Bank of Japan raises its policy rate above 0.5% or materially accelerates its YCC exit, triggering a significant yen carry trade unwind. Yen strengthening causes forced deleveraging across global risk assets as carry-funded positions are unwound, repricing global term premia and compressing risk appetite in high-beta markets.
Asset Class Signals
IF CFTC BTC positioning remains at the 100th percentile AND 10Y real yields stay above 2.0% AND net liquidity remains stable (not expanding), THEN BTC faces continued downside pressure or range-bound action BECAUSE crowded institutional longs have no natural buyer above current levels, real rates at 2.25% create a genuine risk-free alternative, and BTC's beta to liquidity conditions is high.
IF institutional underexposure (CFTC ES 17th percentile) persists AND credit conditions remain loose (HY OAS 2.74, NFCI -0.504) AND the credit impulse (+5.1pp accelerating) continues to support forward earnings, THEN equities grind higher BECAUSE performance-chasing by underexposed institutions creates a mechanical bid, and the credit impulse historically leads equity earnings by 6-9 months.
IF WTI stabilizes in the $65-75 range with OPEC+ discipline intact AND no major supply disruption, THEN oil is range-bound BECAUSE the -28% 1M decline has priced significant demand pessimism, but the energy supply shock scenario (22% HOT) provides asymmetric upside tail risk that prevents a clean short.
Key Risks
Full analysis →- -CPI above 3.0% (estimated 25% probability based on PPI pipeline) — invalidates bond bull thesis, strengthens dollar, shifts equity rotation from cyclicals to defensives, gold surges. Most important single data point.
- -BOJ normalization above 0.5% (42% HOT) — triggers USD/JPY collapse from 161.67 toward 150-155, global carry unwind, risk-off across equities (-10-15%), BTC (-20-30%), dollar vs JPY (-7-10%). Gold initially sells off then recovers.
- -RRP exhaustion + TGA rebuild creates net liquidity contraction (MODERATE probability) — removes the mechanical bid for risk assets, most negative for BTC (100th percentile crowded long) and high-multiple equities.
- -Energy Supply Shock (22% HOT) — oil above $90 adds 50-100bp to CPI within 2-3 months, re-ignites inflation, traps Fed, gold surges, equities fall on margin compression.
- -Semiconductor leading indicator (SMH -5.7% 20D) materializes as industrial production decline in Q4 2026 — invalidates reflation narrative, shifts regime toward deflation or stagflation depending on inflation path.
- -WMT consumer stress signal + CC delinquency rising — consumer spending collapse would invalidate GDPNow 3.0% and credit impulse bull thesis for equities.
Macro Themes
Inflation Trajectory
Pipeline is BUILDING: PPI 3M at +1.1% (accelerating) → CPI 3M at +0.5% → PCE 3M at +0.4%. The PPI-to-CPI transmission lag is typically 2-4 months, suggesting CPI upside surprise risk in Q3. Shelter CPI at +0.4% (3M) — sticky but not accelerating. Supercore at +0.3% — contained. 5Y breakeven fell -29bp 1M to 2.24% — markets are pricing near-term disinflation. But 5Y5Y forward at 2.22% (-1bp 1M) is barely moving — long-run expectations anchored. The breakeven inversion (10Y-5Y = -1bp) signals near-term inflation fears are slightly elevated vs long-run. Michigan inflation expectations at 4.8% (May, stale) — if current, this is a significant upside risk to Fed credibility. Cleveland Fed nowcast (CPI 6.7%, Core PCE 3.3%) is April data and likely stale, but the direction is concerning. GSCPI at +1.77σ (stressed) adds supply-side pressure. Net assessment: the market is pricing disinflation (breakevens falling) but the pipeline data argues for upside CPI surprise risk in Q3. This is the key divergence — if CPI prints above 3.0%, the soft landing narrative breaks and the stagflation scenario gains probability.
Read more →Real Rates Outlook
10Y real yield at 2.25% (+2.6σ from 1Y mean — historically extreme). 5Y real yield at 1.98%. Real yield curve slope +27bp (normal). 1M change: +14bp (accelerating higher). This is the single most important headwind for rate-sensitive assets. At 2.25%, real yields are genuinely restrictive — they create a real risk-free alternative that competes with equities (especially high-multiple tech), gold, and crypto. The fact that equities (SPX 7,447) and gold ($4,140) are holding at these real yield levels is notable and suggests either: (1) the market believes real yields will fall, or (2) the credit impulse and earnings momentum are strong enough to override the discount rate headwind. The 10Y term premium at 68bp (-9bp 1M) is declining, which is mildly bond-bullish at the margin. For duration: real yields at +2.6σ extreme argue for mean reversion lower over 3-6 months, but the inflation pipeline (PPI +1.1% 3M accelerating) prevents a clean bull case. Net: real yields are a structural headwind for growth assets but the extreme level creates asymmetric mean-reversion potential if inflation data surprises to the downside.
Scenario Playbooks
What happens to every asset class when key macro events occur. 100+ scenarios, backed by historical data.
What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?
What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal explained with live data.
What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?
What happens when the VIX fear gauge spikes above 30? Historical analysis of extreme volatility events, market reactions, and contrarian opportunities.
What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?
What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and market playbooks for Fed easing cycles.
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