US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2011
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2011 at 0.08% and closed at 0.08%, a +0.00% move for the year. The high of 0.50% was reached on February 1, and the low of 0.08% on January 1.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.22% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.48% | 0.48% | 0.48% | 0.48% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.32% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.12% | +0.00% |
| Sep | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.26% | +0.00% |
| Oct | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | +0.00% |
| Nov | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.22% | +0.00% |
| Dec | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.08% | +0.00% |
Events During 2011
S&P stripped the United States of its AAA credit rating on August 5, 2011, the first time in history. Markets whipsawed as the debt ceiling fight showed political risk could reprice government creditworthiness.
Greece's debt revelation in October 2009 triggered a multi-year eurozone crisis that threatened the euro's survival. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy required emergency support. Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" in 2012 ended the acute phase.
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