Historical Year Data · 2023
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2023
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2023 at 0.32% and closed at 1.22%, a +281.25% move for the year. The high of 1.22% was reached on December 1, and the low of 0.32% on January 1.
Open
0.32%
2023-01
Close
1.22%
12 data points
High
1.22%
Dec 1
Low
0.32%
Jan 1
Full Year Change
+281.25%
2022 Change
+40.00%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.32% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.38% | 0.38% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 0.44% | 0.44% | 0.44% | 0.44% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.66% | 0.66% | 0.66% | 0.66% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.84% | 0.84% | 0.84% | 0.84% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.42% | 0.42% | 0.42% | 0.42% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.46% | +0.00% |
| Sep | 0.42% | 0.42% | 0.42% | 0.42% | +0.00% |
| Oct | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | +0.00% |
| Nov | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.62% | +0.00% |
| Dec | 1.22% | 1.22% | 1.22% | 1.22% | +0.00% |
Events During 2023
2023 Silicon Valley Bank Collapse
Mixed
March 2023
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10, 2023, the second-largest bank failure in US history. The Fed's response redefined liquidity backstops for the banking system.
2023 Credit Suisse Forced Merger
Mixed
March 15-19, 2023
Credit Suisse was forced into an emergency acquisition by UBS over the weekend of March 18-19, 2023. The deal wiped out AT1 bondholders while preserving some equity, reshaping bank capital structure risk assessment globally.
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