US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2019
US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2019 at 1.76% and closed at 1.00%, a -43.18% move for the year. The high of 2.04% was reached on October 1, and the low of 0.72% on August 1.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.76% | 1.76% | 1.76% | 1.76% | +0.00% |
| Feb | 1.82% | 1.82% | 1.82% | 1.82% | +0.00% |
| Mar | 1.52% | 1.52% | 1.52% | 1.52% | +0.00% |
| Apr | 1.66% | 1.66% | 1.66% | 1.66% | +0.00% |
| May | 1.10% | 1.10% | 1.10% | 1.10% | +0.00% |
| Jun | 0.98% | 0.98% | 0.98% | 0.98% | +0.00% |
| Jul | 0.98% | 0.98% | 0.98% | 0.98% | +0.00% |
| Aug | 0.72% | 0.72% | 0.72% | 0.72% | +0.00% |
| Sep | 1.68% | 1.68% | 1.68% | 1.68% | +0.00% |
| Oct | 2.04% | 2.04% | 2.04% | 2.04% | +0.00% |
| Nov | 0.88% | 0.88% | 0.88% | 0.88% | +0.00% |
| Dec | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | +0.00% |
Events During 2019
Hong Kong's 2019 protests over an extradition bill and Beijing's 2020 National Security Law reshaped the territory's role as Asia's financial hub. Capital outflows, reduced multinational presence, and regulatory divergence from the West had durable effects on regional finance.
Overnight repo rates spiked from 2% to 10% on September 17, 2019, forcing the Fed to intervene with its first open market operations since 2008. The episode revealed structural strains in US money markets that persisted into 2020.
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