Historical Year Data · 2003

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) in 2003

US Recession Probability (Smoothed) opened 2003 at 0.38% and closed at 0.30%, a -21.05% move for the year. The high of 0.80% was reached on February 1, and the low of 0.18% on September 1.

Open

0.38%

2003-01

0.30%

12 data points

High

0.80%

Feb 1

Low

0.18%

Sep 1

Full Year Change

-21.05%

2002 Change

-60.80%

Monthly Breakdown

Month	Open	Close	High	Low	Change
Jan	0.38%	0.38%	0.38%	0.38%	+0.00%
Feb	0.80%	0.80%	0.80%	0.80%	+0.00%
Mar	0.72%	0.72%	0.72%	0.72%	+0.00%
Apr	0.68%	0.68%	0.68%	0.68%	+0.00%
May	0.36%	0.36%	0.36%	0.36%	+0.00%
Jun	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%	+0.00%
Jul	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%	0.26%	+0.00%
Aug	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%	+0.00%
Sep	0.18%	0.18%	0.18%	0.18%	+0.00%
Oct	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	+0.00%
Nov	0.18%	0.18%	0.18%	0.18%	+0.00%
Dec	0.30%	0.30%	0.30%	0.30%	+0.00%

Events During 2003

1990 Japanese Bubble Collapse

Deflation

January 1990 – 2003

The Nikkei 225 peaked at 38,957 on December 29, 1989, then fell 82% over 13 years. Japan entered its "lost decades" of deflation, zero rates, and structural stagnation that still shapes global markets today.

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