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S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index.

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Forecast 2026
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using scenario weighted approach.
Comparison
HY Credit Spreads vs S&P 500
High yield credit spreads are often called the "canary in the coal mine" for equity markets. When HY spreads widen while...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are the two most-watched US equity benchmarks, but they tell different stories. QQQ is tech-h...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs Russell 2000
Large caps vs small caps is a critical gauge of market breadth and economic confidence. Small caps (IWM) are more domest...
Comparison
Net Liquidity vs S&P 500
Net liquidity (Fed balance sheet minus RRP minus TGA) is the single most powerful driver of risk asset performance. When...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs Dow Jones
The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted and dominated by mega-cap tech, while the Dow is price-weighted across 30 blue-chip i...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs Equal-Weight S&P 500
When SPY outperforms RSP, it means the largest stocks are carrying the index while the average stock lags. This narrowin...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs Emerging Markets
US equities have dominated emerging markets for over a decade, driven by dollar strength, tech sector outperformance, an...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs International Developed
The US vs international developed market spread has been a one-way trade for years, but it reverses violently during reg...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs China Large-Cap
US and Chinese equities often move in opposite cycles due to different monetary policy timelines, regulatory environment...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs Japan
Japan's equity market has been a standout performer in recent years as the BOJ maintains ultra-loose policy while the Fe...
Comparison
Energy Sector vs S&P 500
Energy's relative performance vs the S&P 500 is tightly linked to oil prices, inflation expectations, and the capex cycl...
Comparison
Real Estate vs S&P 500
Real estate investment trusts are among the most rate-sensitive equities because they rely on cheap borrowing and are va...
Comparison
Long Bonds vs S&P 500
The stock-bond correlation is the most important relationship in portfolio construction. When TLT and SPY move together ...
Comparison
Oil Price vs S&P 500
The relationship between oil and equities depends on the cause of the oil move. Rising oil from strong demand (growth-dr...
Comparison
Bitcoin vs S&P 500
Bitcoin's correlation with equities has increased as institutional adoption grows, but it remains more volatile and can ...
Comparison
Leading Economic Index vs S&P 500
The Leading Economic Index aggregates 10 components including building permits, initial claims, stock prices, and credit...
Comparison
Homebuilders vs S&P 500
Homebuilder stocks are one of the best leading indicators of economic health because housing is the most rate-sensitive ...
Comparison
Financial Stress Index vs S&P 500
The STLFSI aggregates 18 financial stress indicators including yield spreads, volatility, and funding rates. When stress...
Comparison
VIX vs S&P 500
VIX and SPY are inversely correlated because equity declines create demand for put protection, which pushes up implied v...
Comparison
Fed Balance Sheet vs S&P 500
Since 2008, the Fed balance sheet has been the single most correlated factor with equity prices. QE expands the balance ...
Comparison
Bank Reserves vs S&P 500
Bank reserves are the most fundamental measure of liquidity in the banking system. When reserves become scarce, interban...
Comparison
Fear & Greed Index vs S&P 500
The Fear & Greed Index aggregates multiple sentiment indicators. Extreme fear (below 20) has historically marked buying ...
Comparison
CFTC S&P 500 Positioning vs SPY
CFTC E-mini S&P 500 positioning reveals how leveraged speculators are positioned in equity futures. Heavy net-long posit...
Comparison
DAX 40 vs S&P 500
The DAX is an export-heavy, industrials-and-auto-dominated index while the S&P 500 is tech-heavy. DAX outperformance typ...
Comparison
FTSE 100 vs S&P 500
The FTSE 100 is heavy on energy, mining, banking, and consumer staples, making it a value-and-dividend index. When the F...
Comparison
Euro Stoxx 50 vs S&P 500
The Euro Stoxx 50 represents the largest eurozone companies across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. When Euro Stoxx ou...
Comparison
Ethereum vs S&P 500
Ethereum is typically higher beta than bitcoin, which makes it even more correlated with equities in risk-on phases and ...
Comparison
Gold vs S&P 500
Gold versus SPY is the purest risk-on versus risk-off ratio in macro. Rising gold/SPY signals flight to safety, falling ...
Comparison
Copper vs S&P 500
Copper is nicknamed Dr. Copper because it is said to have a PhD in economics, reflecting the pulse of global industrial ...
Comparison
Germany (EWG) vs S&P 500
Germany is the most cyclical developed economy with heavy exports to China and deep automotive and industrials exposure....
Comparison
CAC 40 vs S&P 500
The CAC 40 is heavy in luxury (LVMH, Hermès, Kering) and industrial champions like Airbus and TotalEnergies. When CAC ou...
Comparison
Apple (AAPL) vs S&P 500
Apple's weight in the S&P 500 is so large that its relative performance directly shapes index returns. When AAPL outperf...
Comparison
Microsoft (MSFT) vs S&P 500
Microsoft's performance versus SPY reflects the health of enterprise software, cloud (Azure), and AI infrastructure spen...
Comparison
Nvidia (NVDA) vs S&P 500
Nvidia's relative performance versus SPY is the clearest market proxy for the AI infrastructure buildout. Sustained NVDA...
Comparison
Alphabet (GOOGL) vs S&P 500
Alphabet versus SPY captures digital ad spending cycles and cloud infrastructure competition. Outperformance typically a...
Comparison
Amazon (AMZN) vs S&P 500
Amazon versus SPY combines consumer discretionary e-commerce with enterprise AWS exposure. Outperformance signals robust...
Comparison
Meta (META) vs S&P 500
Meta versus SPY reflects the digital ad ecosystem, user growth at Facebook and Instagram, and the payoff of Meta's aggre...
Comparison
Tesla (TSLA) vs S&P 500
Tesla is the most retail-flow-sensitive mega cap. Its relative performance versus SPY reveals both EV adoption dynamics ...
Comparison
JPMorgan (JPM) vs S&P 500
JPM versus SPY is a proxy for the health of US banks and the yield curve. Outperformance usually reflects a steepening c...
Comparison
ExxonMobil (XOM) vs S&P 500
XOM versus SPY is a clean expression of the energy trade against the broader market. XOM outperformance typically coinci...
Comparison
UnitedHealth (UNH) vs S&P 500
UnitedHealth versus SPY is a defensive rotation signal. UNH outperformance during SPY drawdowns confirms defensive rotat...
Comparison
Caterpillar (CAT) vs S&P 500
CAT versus SPY is one of the cleanest market proxies for the global industrial and commodity cycle. CAT outperformance s...
Comparison
Utilities (XLU) vs S&P 500
XLU versus SPY is a pure defensive signal. Utilities are rate-sensitive bond proxies with stable cash flows. When XLU ou...
Comparison
Consumer Staples (XLP) vs S&P 500
Staples outperforming SPY is one of the clearest late-cycle and defensive-rotation signals. Companies like Procter & Gam...
Comparison
Healthcare (XLV) vs S&P 500
XLV versus SPY captures both defensive rotation and idiosyncratic healthcare catalysts (GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, biotech...
Comparison
Communication Services (XLC) vs S&P 500
XLC is dominated by Meta, Alphabet, Netflix, and Disney. When XLC outperforms SPY, digital advertising and streaming med...
Comparison
Industrials (XLI) vs S&P 500
XLI versus SPY is a cyclical leadership gauge. Industrial outperformance signals robust capex, aerospace strength, or re...
Comparison
Financials (XLF) vs S&P 500
XLF versus SPY is a direct read on bank and insurance sector health. Outperformance typically requires a steepening yiel...
Comparison
Regional Banks (KRE) vs S&P 500
KRE versus SPY is the sharpest regional bank stress indicator. Regional banks depend on net interest margin, deposit sta...
Comparison
Semiconductors (SMH) vs S&P 500
SMH versus SPY is a clear read on the semiconductor cycle. SMH outperformance signals strong chip demand, AI capex expan...
Comparison
Industrial Production vs S&P 500
Industrial production captures real manufacturing and mining output. When SPY outperforms indpro substantially, equity m...
Comparison
OECD US Leading Indicator vs S&P 500
The OECD CLI aggregates forward-looking indicators including yield curves, orders, and sentiment. When OECD CLI turns do...
Comparison
Case-Shiller Home Prices vs S&P 500
Home prices and equities are the two largest household wealth components. When SPY outpaces Case-Shiller, equity wealth ...
Comparison
Brent Crude vs S&P 500
Brent is the global oil benchmark while WTI is more US-focused. Brent versus SPY captures the global oil trade relative ...
Comparison
Natural Gas vs S&P 500
Natural gas versus SPY reveals gas-specific demand dynamics. Gas outperformance can signal cold winters, export demand, ...
Comparison
IMF All Commodity Index vs S&P 500
The IMF All Commodity Index captures global commodity price levels including oil, metals, and agriculture. Commodities o...
Comparison
Freeport-McMoRan vs S&P 500
FCX versus SPY is a clean commodity-cycle trade within US equities. FCX outperformance signals strong copper prices and ...
Comparison
Agricultural Commodities (DBA) vs S&P 500
DBA holds grain and soft commodity futures (corn, wheat, soy, sugar, coffee). DBA outperforming SPY signals food inflati...
Comparison
Dollar Index (DXY) vs S&P 500
Dollar strength has mixed effects on US equities. A strong dollar pressures multinational earnings but attracts foreign ...
Comparison
High Yield Bonds (HYG) vs S&P 500
HYG and SPY usually trade in sync because both reflect risk appetite. Divergence signals trouble: HYG weakening while SP...
Comparison
Investment Grade Bonds (LQD) vs S&P 500
LQD vs SPY captures duration plus IG credit vs equity risk. In disinflation cycles LQD and SPY rally together. In rising...
Comparison
VSTOXX vs S&P 500
VSTOXX is the European VIX, measuring Euro Stoxx 50 implied volatility. Rising VSTOXX with rising SPY signals European-s...
Comparison
Reverse Repo vs S&P 500
RRP balances represent cash parked at the Fed, effectively sterilized liquidity. Rising RRP and rising SPY together (as ...
Comparison
Oil ETF (USO) vs S&P 500
USO offers liquid oil exposure comparable to SPY for equity exposure. USO/SPY captures the broad commodity-equity rotati...
Comparison
Risk Appetite Index vs S&P 500
CRAI aggregates multiple risk-appetite signals across asset classes. When CRAI confirms SPY gains, the rally is broad-ba...
Comparison
Initial Jobless Claims vs S&P 500
Initial claims typically rise ahead of equity drawdowns in recessions. When claims rise while SPY rallies, equities are ...
Comparison
Nonfarm Payrolls vs S&P 500
Payrolls growth and SPY typically move together during expansions. When payrolls decelerate but SPY rallies (goldilocks)...
Comparison
Unemployment Rate vs S&P 500
Rising unemployment historically precedes equity drawdowns but with significant lag. The 2025 Sahm trigger coincided wit...
Comparison
Michigan Inflation Expectations vs S&P 500
Rising Michigan inflation expectations typically pressure equities via Fed policy response expectations. When Michigan r...
Comparison
Consumer Sentiment vs S&P 500
Consumer sentiment has historically been a contrarian indicator. Extreme pessimism has coincided with equity bottoms (20...
Comparison
Auto Sales vs S&P 500
Auto sales are a cyclical consumer indicator. Falling auto sales with SPY rallying signals sector-specific weakness in a...
Comparison
S&P 500 vs 10Y Treasury Yield
The stock-bond relationship has evolved. From 2000-2021 stocks and bonds moved inversely (stocks up, yields down). Post-...
Comparison
Nominal GDP vs S&P 500
SPY has historically grown faster than GDP as corporate profits have captured a larger share. When SPY outpaces GDP subs...
Comparison
Dollar ETF (UUP) vs S&P 500
UUP/SPY is the ETF version of the classic dollar-versus-equity trade. US exceptionalism supports both, but extreme dolla...
Comparison
Adjusted NFCI vs S&P 500
ANFCI strips out the cyclical component of financial conditions. When ANFCI rises while SPY rallies, unusual financial s...
Comparison
Chicago NFCI vs S&P 500
NFCI above zero signals tightening financial conditions. When NFCI rises while SPY rallies, equity markets are ignoring ...
Comparison
Recession Probability Index vs S&P 500
CRPI aggregates recession signals across labor, credit, housing, and yield curve. When CRPI rises while SPY rallies, equ...
Comparison
Sahm Rule vs S&P 500
The Sahm rule triggers when labor-market deceleration reaches recessionary thresholds. When Sahm triggers while SPY rall...
Comparison
10Y-3M Yield Curve vs S&P 500
The 10Y-3M curve is the NY Fed's preferred recession signal. Inversions lead recessions by 12-24 months. When the curve ...
Comparison
30Y Mortgage Rate vs S&P 500
Rising mortgage rates pressure consumer wealth and spending, a drag on SPY earnings. When SPY rallies despite high mortg...
Comparison
Building Permits vs S&P 500
Permits are among the most forward-looking housing indicators. When permits fall while SPY rallies, equity markets are i...
Comparison
Housing Starts vs S&P 500
Housing starts have historically led major business cycles. When starts fall while SPY rallies (2022-2024), equities are...
Comparison
Average Weekly Hours vs S&P 500
Weekly hours are among the earliest labor-market recession signals because firms reduce hours before cutting headcount. ...
Comparison
Corporate Profits After Tax vs S&P 500
CPATAX is the broadest earnings measure, covering all corporates including private. SPY reflects only listed large-caps....
Comparison
Capacity Utilization vs S&P 500
Capacity utilization above 80 historically precedes inflation and Fed tightening; below 75 precedes easing. When SPY ral...
Comparison
Gold ETF (GLD) vs S&P 500
GLD tracks gold spot minus expense ratio. The GLD/SPY ratio rises in risk-off regimes, inflation scares, or geopolitical...
Comparison
Durable Goods Orders vs S&P 500
Durable orders capture business investment intent (machinery, aircraft, equipment). When SPY rallies without durable-ord...
Scenario
What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?
What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal ex...
Scenario
What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?
What happens when the VIX fear gauge spikes above 30? Historical analysis of extreme volatility events, market reactions...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?
What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and m...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates?
What happens to markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Rate hike cycle impacts on stocks, bonds, housin...
Scenario
What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot?
What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portf...
Scenario
What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers?
What happens when the Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers? Every historical instance, market impacts, and what it mea...
Scenario
What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out?
What happens when junk bond credit spreads widen past 500 bps? Credit crises, contagion risk, and the flight to quality ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply?
What happens when the US dollar surges? Impact on emerging markets, commodities, corporate earnings, and global financia...
Scenario
What Happens When Oil Prices Spike?
What happens when oil prices spike? Inflation fears, consumer squeeze, recession risk, and the complex impact on stocks,...
Scenario
What Happens When the Housing Market Crashes?
What happens when US home prices crash? The wealth effect, banking stress, and cascading economic impacts of a housing d...
Scenario
What Happens When Unemployment Rises?
What happens when the unemployment rate rises? Consumer spending impacts, market reactions, and the economic feedback lo...
Scenario
What Happens When Gold Surges?
What happens when gold prices surge? The risk-off signal, inflation hedge demand, central bank buying, and portfolio imp...
Scenario
What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?
What happens when Bitcoin crashes 30%+? Crypto contagion, risk-off cascades, and whether BTC drawdowns spill into tradit...
Scenario
What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails?
What happens when Treasury auctions see weak demand? Fiscal dominance concerns, yield spikes, and the threat to the glob...
Scenario
What Happens When Inflation Expectations De-Anchor?
What happens when long-term inflation expectations break above 3%? Fed credibility crisis, policy dilemma, and the risk ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes?
What happens to markets when the Fed stops raising rates? Historical patterns from rate pauses, asset class playbooks, a...
Scenario
What Happens When the Dollar Crashes?
What happens to global markets when the US dollar drops sharply? Impact on commodities, emerging markets, US equities, a...
Scenario
What Happens When Copper Surges?
What happens when copper prices surge? Why "Dr. Copper" is the economy's best diagnostician, and what it means for equit...
Scenario
What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%?
What happens when the stock market enters a bear market? Historical patterns, recovery timelines, asset class reactions,...
Scenario
What Happens When Gold Hits $3,000?
What does gold at $3,000 mean for the global economy? Analysis of what drives gold to record highs and the implications ...
Scenario
What Happens When Initial Jobless Claims Spike?
What happens when weekly jobless claims surge? The highest-frequency recession indicator, what levels matter, and how ma...
Scenario
What Happens When the VIX Drops Below 12?
What happens when market volatility hits extreme lows? The risks of complacency, historical parallels, and how to positi...
Scenario
What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative?
What happens when real interest rates turn negative? Financial repression, the war on savers, and how assets reprice whe...
Scenario
What Happens When Consumer Confidence Collapses?
What happens when consumer sentiment craters? Does it actually predict spending? Historical analysis of confidence crash...
Scenario
What Happens When the Yield Curve Steepens Sharply?
What happens when the yield curve steepens rapidly? Bull steepener vs bear steepener, recession timing, and the implicat...
Scenario
What Happens When Credit Spreads Hit Record Tights?
What happens when high yield credit spreads compress to historically tight levels? The risks of complacency in corporate...
Scenario
What Happens When Bitcoin Halves?
What happens to Bitcoin after a halving? Historical price cycles, supply shock mechanics, miner economics, and how halvi...
Scenario
What Happens When the Trade Deficit Widens Sharply?
What happens when the US trade deficit surges? Dollar implications, tariff risk, manufacturing impact, and what it signa...
Scenario
What Happens When Banks Tighten Lending Standards?
What happens when banks pull back on lending? How tighter credit standards predict recessions, default waves, and the tr...
Scenario
What Happens When the M2 Money Supply Contracts?
What happens when the money supply shrinks? Monetarist deflation fears, historical rarity, and implications for asset pr...
Scenario
What Happens When China Devalues the Yuan?
What happens when China devalues its currency? Global deflation export, emerging market contagion, commodity impact, and...
Scenario
What Happens When ISM Manufacturing Drops Below 45?
What happens when the manufacturing sector enters deep contraction? Historical recession correlation, supply chain effec...
Scenario
What Happens When Financial Conditions Tighten?
What happens when the Chicago Fed NFCI signals tight financial conditions? How credit conditions transmit through the ec...
Scenario
What Happens When Breakeven Inflation Crashes?
What happens when the bond market prices in deflation? When breakeven inflation crashes below the Fed target, it signals...
Scenario
What Happens When the Savings Rate Hits Zero?
What happens when Americans stop saving? The consumer spending cliff, credit card debt explosion, and what it means when...
Scenario
What Happens When Speculative Positioning Hits Extremes?
What happens when futures market positioning hits extreme levels? Contrarian signals, crowded trade risks, and how CFTC ...
Scenario
What Happens When Emerging Market Currencies Crash?
What happens when emerging market currencies collapse? Contagion risk, capital flight, commodity impact, and whether EM ...
Scenario
What Happens When GDP Contracts?
What happens to markets, policy, and the economy when real GDP contracts? Historical playbook for recession quarters, wi...
Scenario
What Happens When the Sahm Rule Exceeds 1.0?
The Sahm Rule triggers recession alerts when unemployment rises 0.5 points. What happens when it exceeds 1.0, signaling ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Leading Economic Index Turns Negative?
The Leading Economic Index anticipates recessions by 6-12 months. What happens when its six-month change turns negative,...
Scenario
What Happens When Core PCE Exceeds 4%?
Core PCE above 4% represents severe Fed target overshoot. What happens to rates, markets, and the Fed when the preferred...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates to Zero?
Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) marks extreme monetary easing. What happens to markets, saving, and the economy when th...
Scenario
What Happens When the 10Y Treasury Yield Exceeds 5%?
10-year Treasury yields above 5% represent extreme tightening of financial conditions. What happens to equities, housing...
Scenario
What Happens When SOFR Spikes Above Fed Funds?
SOFR spikes signal acute funding stress in Treasury repo markets. What happens when overnight funding rates rise above t...
Scenario
What Happens When Investment Grade Spreads Compress Below 100 bps?
IG corporate spreads below 100 bps signal credit-market complacency. What happens when investors accept minimal premium ...
Scenario
What Happens When Credit Card Delinquency Exceeds 5%?
Credit card delinquency above 5% signals acute consumer stress. What happens to retailers, banks, and the consumer econo...
Scenario
What Happens When DXY Hits 120?
Extreme dollar strength creates global stress. What happens when the broad dollar index hits multi-decade highs, pressur...
Scenario
What Happens When the Copper-Gold Ratio Collapses?
Copper-gold ratio collapse signals growth concerns and is often called "Dr. Copper's recession warning". What happens wh...
Scenario
What Happens When Bitcoin Crosses $100,000?
Bitcoin above $100,000 marks a major psychological milestone. What happens to crypto markets, institutional adoption, an...
Scenario
What Happens When the Magnificent 7 Exceeds 30% of S&P 500?
Extreme mega-cap concentration creates fragility. What happens when the Magnificent 7 (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, ME...
Scenario
What Happens When the Put-Call Ratio Spikes Above 1.2?
Put-call ratios above 1.2 signal extreme fear and hedging demand. What happens when put options demand dramatically exce...
Scenario
What Happens When Fear & Greed Index Hits Extreme Greed?
Extreme greed readings signal euphoria and contrarian sell signals. What happens when sentiment indicators hit maximum o...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Recession Probability Index Spikes?
What happens when the Convex Recession Probability Index signals elevated recession risk? Composite of leading indicator...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Net Liquidity Index Contracts?
What happens when aggregate USD net liquidity contracts? Impact on risk assets, Bitcoin, and equity multiples when Fed b...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses?
What happens when the Convex Risk Appetite Index collapses into extreme fear? Composite of VIX, credit spreads, put-call...
Scenario
What Happens When Nonfarm Payrolls Turn Negative?
What happens when Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) turn negative? Recession confirmation, Fed response, and historical market reac...
Scenario
What Happens When Job Openings Collapse?
What happens when JOLTS job openings collapse? Labor market weakness, Fed response, and implications for wage growth and...
Scenario
What Happens When the Quits Rate Collapses?
What happens when the JOLTS quits rate collapses below 2.0%? Loss of worker confidence, wage growth deceleration, and re...
Scenario
What Happens When the Labor Force Participation Rate Drops?
What happens when the labor force participation rate drops sharply? Implications for structural growth, unemployment mea...
Scenario
What Happens When Average Weekly Hours Collapse?
What happens when average weekly hours worked collapse? Early warning of labor demand weakness before layoffs begin....
Scenario
What Happens When Continuing Jobless Claims Surge?
What happens when continuing unemployment claims surge above 2.0M? Signal that unemployed workers are having trouble fin...
Scenario
What Happens When Real GDP Turns Negative?
What happens when real GDP contracts? Recession definition, Fed response, and historical market behavior during negative...
Scenario
What Happens When Wage Growth Accelerates Above 5%?
What happens when average hourly earnings accelerate above 5% year-over-year? Fed response, inflation implications, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When Energy CPI Spikes?
What happens when energy CPI spikes 20%+ year-over-year? Consumer spending impact, inflation expectations, and recession...
Scenario
What Happens When Food Inflation Surges Above 10%?
What happens when food CPI surges above 10%? Consumer sentiment impact, political consequences, and recession risk from ...
Scenario
What Happens When Shelter CPI Peaks?
What happens when shelter CPI peaks and begins decelerating? Disinflation implications, Fed response, and market reactio...
Scenario
What Happens When PPI Turns Negative?
What happens when Producer Price Index turns negative? Deflation risk, margin implications, and the leading signal for C...
Scenario
What Happens When Fed Funds Rate Exceeds 6%?
What happens when the Fed funds rate exceeds 6%? Financial stress, economic slowdown risk, and historical precedents fro...
Scenario
What Happens When 30-Year Treasury Yields Surge?
What happens when 30-year Treasury yields surge above 5%? Bond market stress, fiscal concerns, and equity multiple compr...
Scenario
What Happens When 10-Year Real Yields Turn Positive?
What happens when 10-year real yields turn positive after a prolonged negative period? Impact on gold, tech stocks, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Reverse Repo Facility Drains to Zero?
What happens when the Fed RRP facility drains? Liquidity implications, money market dynamics, and impact on bank reserve...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands?
What happens when the Fed restarts balance sheet expansion (QE)? Risk asset response, inflation implications, and histor...
Scenario
What Happens When Bank Reserves Collapse?
What happens when bank reserves fall sharply? Repo market stress, funding conditions, and potential Fed response....
Scenario
What Happens When the Treasury General Account Drains?
What happens when the Treasury General Account (TGA) drains? Liquidity injection effects, risk asset response, and debt ...
Scenario
What Happens When Bank Lending Standards Tighten Sharply?
What happens when banks sharply tighten lending standards? Credit contraction effects, business investment decline, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When Credit Card Delinquencies Spike?
What happens when credit card delinquencies spike? Consumer stress, retail impact, and bank earnings implications....
Scenario
What Happens When China Devalues the Yuan Sharply?
What happens when China devalues the yuan beyond 7.5? Global deflation impulse, emerging market stress, and US trade imp...
Scenario
What Happens When the Japanese Yen Weakens Past 160?
What happens when USDJPY exceeds 160? BoJ intervention risk, carry trade unwinds, and global market implications....
Scenario
What Happens When Copper Surges to All-Time Highs?
What happens when copper reaches new all-time highs? Economic signal, inflation implications, and electrification demand...
Scenario
What Happens When Defensive Sectors Lead the Market?
What happens when staples (XLP) sharply outperform discretionary (XLY)? Recession signal, defensive positioning, and sec...
Scenario
What Happens When Regional Banks Come Under Stress?
What happens when regional bank stocks (KRE) drop sharply? Deposit flight risk, commercial real estate exposure, and Fed...
Scenario
What Happens When Retail Sales Contract?
What happens when retail sales contract for 3+ consecutive months? Consumer weakness signal, recession confirmation, and...
Scenario
What Happens When Durable Goods Orders Plummet?
What happens when durable goods orders plummet? Capex signal, manufacturing weakness, and investment cycle implications....
Scenario
What Happens When Housing Starts Collapse?
What happens when housing starts collapse below 1.1M? Housing cycle bottom signals, construction employment impact, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When Semiconductors Rally Sharply?
What happens when semiconductors (SMH) sharply outperform? AI investment cycle, global economic implications, and tech l...
Scenario
What Happens When Corporate Profits Peak?
What happens when corporate profits peak and begin declining? Earnings recession signal, equity market implications, and...
Scenario
What Happens When Industrial Production Declines?
What happens when industrial production declines for multiple months? Manufacturing recession signals, cyclical sector i...
Scenario
What Happens When the Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Spikes?
What happens when business inventories rise sharply relative to sales? Destocking signal, production cuts, and recession...
Scenario
What Happens When Real Personal Income Declines?
What happens when real disposable personal income declines? Consumer spending implications, savings rate changes, and re...
Scenario
What Happens When European Stocks Outperform?
What happens when European stocks sharply outperform US equities? Sector rotation, currency implications, and relative v...
Scenario
What Happens When VSTOXX European Volatility Spikes?
What happens when VSTOXX European volatility exceeds 35? European stress signal, global spillover risk, and ECB policy i...

Frequently Asked Questions

What is S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?
SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index.
How often is S&P 500 ETF (SPY) updated?
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
Where does Convex source S&P 500 ETF (SPY) data?
Convex sources S&P 500 ETF (SPY) data from live market data providers including CoinGecko for crypto and major exchanges for equities and commodities. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
What can I do on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) chart page?
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.

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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.