Agricultural Commodities (DBA) vs S&P 500
The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) tracks corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar, cocoa, coffee, cotton, and livestock futures, and its relationship to the S&P 500 is the cleanest cross-asset read on whether food inflation is a macro driver or a sector-specific story. DBA closed at $27.96 on April 28, 2026, near the top of its 52-week range of $25.40 to $28.01, while the S&P 500 set fresh records through Q1 2026.
Also known as: Agriculture ETF (DBA) (ETF_DBA, agriculture ETF, ag) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) tracks corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar, cocoa, coffee, cotton, and livestock futures, and its relationship to the S&P 500 is the cleanest cross-asset read on whether food inflation is a macro driver or a sector-specific story. DBA closed at $27.96 on April 28, 2026, near the top of its 52-week range of $25.40 to $28.01, while the S&P 500 set fresh records through Q1 2026. The pair has decoupled from broader equity risk appetite since the November 10, 2025 index methodology change that reweighted DBA's basket and added cap limits, which is the kind of structural shift the pair encodes that headline ag-inflation discussion misses entirely.
Why this specific pair is watched
Macro desks at JPMorgan Agricultural Research, the USDA Economic Research Service, and Rabobank Food and Agribusiness Research track DBA-versus-SPY to separate commodity-specific food inflation from broader equity risk-appetite cycles. The pair is the listed-vehicle expression of the agricultural complex, and the spread captures whether food inflation is being driven by weather, geopolitics, or biofuel policy rather than by the broader macro narrative that drives equities.
The most important historical breakpoint is the 2010-2012 food crisis, when wheat, corn, and soybean futures rallied 60 to 90% on the 2012 US Midwest drought (the most severe since 1956) while the S&P 500 returned 13.4% in 2012. That episode established the template: ag-driven food inflation does not necessarily compress equity multiples because food is a small share of US consumer spending (roughly 13% of headline PCE). The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 produced the second template, with CBOT wheat rising from $7.50 to $12.50 over six weeks while the S&P 500 fell 18% peak to trough. Geopolitical food shocks coupled with energy shocks can compress the pair; weather-only shocks typically do not.
Historical relationship and structural breaks
DBA's launch in January 2007 means the available history covers the 2008 GFC, the 2010-2012 food crisis, the 2014-2020 secular bear market in agricultural commodities, and the 2021-2022 inflation surge. The rolling 12-month correlation between DBA and the S&P 500 has ranged from -0.20 to +0.50 over that window, with the highest readings during 2007-2008 (when both legs were running on commodity supercycle and equity expansion) and the lowest during 2014-2016 (when DBA fell 36% versus an S&P 500 that gained 8.6%).
The structural breaks are biofuel policy and global trade. The 2007 US Energy Independence and Security Act mandated 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, which permanently lifted the corn-equity correlation by tying ag prices to energy through the ethanol channel. The 2022 Russian invasion exposed the second structural break: Russia and Ukraine combined supplied roughly 28% of global wheat exports and 75% of global sunflower oil exports per FAO 2022 data, and removing that supply produced a one-way DBA repricing that headline correlation statistics smoothed over. The November 10, 2025 DBA methodology change added new commodities, removed illiquid contracts, and added weight caps, which is the kind of index-construction event that breaks pre-2025 historical analysis.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Agriculture ETF (DBA). Computed from 1,279 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rises 0.14% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.24%. 128 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 59% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is in the DBA basket?+
Corn, soybeans, wheat, Kansas City wheat, sugar, cocoa, coffee, cotton, live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs, traded as exchange futures. The November 10, 2025 methodology change added new commodities, removed illiquid contracts, and added weight caps to limit single-commodity concentration. The fund's expense ratio is 0.93% and AUM is approximately $1.18 billion as of April 2026.
How does DBA respond to weather shocks?+
Single-region weather shocks produce contained DBA moves because the basket is diversified across grains, softs, and livestock. The 2024-2025 Brazilian drought pushed coffee futures to $4.20 per pound but contributed only about 3 percentage points to DBA. Multi-region drought events like 2012 produce larger moves; the 2012 US Midwest drought was the most severe since 1956 and pushed wheat, corn, and soy 60-90% higher.
Did the 2022 Ukraine invasion affect DBA?+
Materially. Russia and Ukraine supplied roughly 28% of global wheat exports and 75% of global sunflower oil exports per FAO 2022 data. CBOT wheat rose 73% in three weeks (February 18 to March 7, 2022). DBA returned 19.4% in Q1 2022 while the S&P 500 fell 4.6%, a 24-percentage-point spread, the largest since 2008. Most of the outperformance reversed by late 2022 as Black Sea grain shipments resumed.
How did the November 2025 methodology change affect DBA?+
Invesco expanded the commodity universe, removed illiquid contracts, added annual weight reviews based on global production and market liquidity, and added weight caps. The pre-November 2025 DBA carried roughly 25% sugar, 12% corn, 11% coffee; the post-methodology basket is more diversified. Pre-2025 historical analysis needs an explicit adjustment for the change.
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