Agricultural Commodities (DBA) vs S&P 500
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
DBA holds grain and soft commodity futures (corn, wheat, soy, sugar, coffee). DBA outperforming SPY signals food inflation pressures often driven by weather, geopolitics, or biofuel demand. Extended underperformance reflects good harvests and stable agricultural supply. Ag commodities are the most weather-sensitive asset class.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: Agriculture ETF (DBA) represents invesco DB Agriculture Fund, broad agricultural commodities and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) represents SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index, which is why this comparison sits in the cross asset pair category on Convex. In risk-on periods, correlations across asset classes settle toward fair values, and the Agriculture ETF (DBA)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread typically obey its historical fair value. Agriculture ETF (DBA) belongs to the Commodities space, whereas S&P 500 ETF (SPY) belongs to Equity Index, and the interaction between those two worlds is where the interesting macro information resides.
Analysts pair Agriculture ETF (DBA) with S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to build cross-asset indicators that are harder to game than any single-market series. Risk-off regimes concentrate correlations and force the Agriculture ETF (DBA)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread into cramped ranges. The bridge between Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) runs through shared macro drivers, and isolating the spread decomposes common factors from idiosyncratic noise.
Regime dating based on Agriculture ETF (DBA)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) can be self-reinforcing, because extreme spread values often snap back via mean reversion or regime change. Policy-driven transitions inject abrupt repricing into the Agriculture ETF (DBA)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relationship because the two markets respond to policy guidance on different timescales.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Agriculture ETF (DBA) typically lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Agriculture ETF (DBA) tends to lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Agriculture ETF (DBA) precede corresponding moves in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Agriculture ETF (DBA)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Divergence between Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Agriculture ETF (DBA) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Is Agriculture ETF (DBA) a hedge for S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Cross-asset hedges between Agriculture ETF (DBA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Agriculture ETF (DBA)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.