Copper vs S&P 500
Copper closed at $5.98 per pound on April 24, 2026 (COMEX); SPY traded near $708 the same week. Copper has gained 23.55 percent year-over-year on AI infrastructure, EV, and electrification demand.
Also known as: Copper Price (Global) (copper, copper price, Dr Copper) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
Copper closed at $5.98 per pound on April 24, 2026 (COMEX); SPY traded near $708 the same week. Copper has gained 23.55 percent year-over-year on AI infrastructure, EV, and electrification demand. SPY has gained approximately 4 percent year-to-date 2026. The pair captures Dr. Copper (industrial cycle leading indicator) versus broad equity market. Historically, copper leads SPY by 3-6 months during industrial cycle inflections - copper rallies precede equity rallies, copper compression precedes equity compression. The 2024-2026 setup is unusual: copper has structurally rallied on long-cycle electrification demand independent of broader cyclical drivers; SPY has rallied modestly on AI capex narrative plus Fed cut expectations. Both at elevated levels but with diverging structural drivers.
The April 2026 Configuration
Copper $5.98/lb, SPY $708. Copper/SPY ratio approximately 0.0084 lb per share. The 12-month range is approximately 0.0055 to 0.009. The 5-year range is 0.0035 to 0.009.
Copper YTD 2026 +5 percent (from $5.70 January to $5.98 April with March $5.44 trough); SPY YTD +4 percent (essentially equal). Both elevated but with copper showing recent stronger relative momentum.
The ratio at 0.0084 is near multi-year highs. Above 0.0090 indicates copper extreme outperformance (typically late-cycle industrial peak). Below 0.0055 indicates SPY-dominated regime (typically copper-cycle bottoming or recession). The current 0.0084 reflects copper structural demand combined with SPY consolidation around AI translation questions.
Dr. Copper as Leading Indicator
Copper has earned the "Dr. Copper" nickname for leading-indicator characteristics versus equities. Three structural channels.
First, manufacturing leads earnings: copper demand reflects manufacturing PMI by 3-6 months. Manufacturing earnings lead broader S&P earnings by 3-6 months. Copper price changes therefore lead SPY by 6-12 months on average.
Second, China demand: China consumes ~55 percent of global copper. Chinese economic strength leads global demand by 3-6 months and US equity earnings by similar lag. Copper provides earlier read on Chinese economic conditions than US-listed equity proxies.
Third, infrastructure investment: copper-intensive infrastructure spending typically precedes broader business investment cycles. The lag from infrastructure plan announcement to equity-market response is typically 6-9 months.
The historical lead time has been 3-12 months across multiple cycles. The 2024-2026 era: copper structural rally has anticipated AI capex translation that may eventually flow through to broader equity earnings.
Volatility and Correlation
Copper realized volatility approximately 20-30 percent annualized vs SPY 16-17 percent. The 1.3-1.8x volatility ratio reflects copper greater sensitivity to industrial cycles plus shorter inventory cycles.
60-day rolling correlation between copper and SPY averages approximately 0.50 (moderately positive). During risk-on rallies correlation rises to 0.70 (both rallying on growth). During copper-specific events correlation drops to 0.20-0.30. Current April 2026 correlation approximately 0.40, reflecting modest copper-specific divergence.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are current copper and SPY levels?+
Copper $5.98/lb COMEX April 24 2026; SPY $708; copper/SPY ratio 0.0084 lb per share (12-month range 0.0055-0.0090, 5-year range 0.0035-0.0090). Copper YTD 2026 +5% (from $5.70 January with March $5.44 trough); SPY YTD +4%. Copper +23.55% YoY on AI/EV/electrification demand. The ratio at 0.0084 is near multi-year highs, reflecting copper structural demand combined with SPY consolidation around AI translation questions.
Why is copper called "Dr. Copper"?+
Copper has leading-indicator characteristics versus equities. Three structural channels. First, manufacturing leads earnings: copper demand reflects manufacturing PMI by 3-6 months. Manufacturing earnings lead broader S&P earnings by 3-6 months. Copper price changes lead SPY by 6-12 months on average. Second, China demand: China consumes ~55% of global copper. Chinese economic strength leads global demand by 3-6 months and US equity earnings by similar lag. Third, infrastructure investment: copper-intensive infrastructure typically precedes broader business investment by 6-9 months. The 2024-2026 era: copper structural rally has anticipated AI capex translation.
How volatile and correlated are copper and SPY?+
Copper realized volatility ~20-30% annualized vs SPY 16-17% (1.3-1.8x ratio reflects copper greater sensitivity to industrial cycles plus shorter inventory cycles). 60-day rolling correlation averages ~0.50 moderate positive. During risk-on rallies correlation rises 0.70 (both rallying on growth). During copper-specific events drops to 0.20-0.30. Current April 2026 ~0.40 reflects modest copper-specific divergence. Direct copper exposure: CPER ETF, JJC ETN, HG futures (most liquid). The pair has produced ~35pp cumulative gain 2022-2026 long copper short SPY on structural rally.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.