What Happens When Durable Goods Orders Plummet?
What happens when durable goods orders plummet? Capex signal, manufacturing weakness, and investment cycle implications.
Trigger: Durable Goods Orders declines 10%+ month-over-month
The Mechanics
Durable goods orders measure new orders placed with US manufacturers for long-lived items (machinery, transportation equipment, computers, appliances). Core capital goods orders (ex-defense, ex-aircraft) are the cleanest capex signal, while headline orders include volatile aircraft categories that can swing prints significantly.
A 10%+ decline in orders signals sharp business investment retrenchment. Businesses cut durable goods orders when they anticipate weaker demand, face funding constraints, or feel uncertain about the economic outlook. This decision reflects forward-looking expectations rather than current conditions, making durable goods orders a leading economic indicator.
Declining orders precede actual production cuts, layoffs in manufacturing, and eventually broader economic weakness. The signal is particularly strong when the decline is broad-based across categories (machinery, motor vehicles, metals) rather than isolated to one sector.
Historical Context
Durable goods orders have seen sharp declines during every recession: 2008-2009 (peak -40% YoY), 2020 (-60% in April), and 2001 (peak -25%). Post-COVID orders have been elevated due to pent-up demand, supply chain catch-up, and AI-related capex (semiconductors, data center equipment). Core capital goods orders have been particularly resilient in 2023-2024.
Market Impact
XLI underperforms sharply as industrial companies face order slowdowns.
Materials pressured as input demand weakens.
Broad market underperforms on capex weakness signal.
Bonds rally on capex weakness and implied growth slowdown.
Cyclicals sharply underperform defensives during capex downturns.
Dollar can strengthen on safe-haven demand or weaken on Fed pivot expectations.
What to Watch For
- -Core capital goods orders YoY turning negative
- -ISM Manufacturing new orders below 45
- -Business investment in GDP data turning negative
- -Capacity utilization declining below 76%
- -CEO confidence surveys declining sharply
How to Interpret Current Conditions
Track core capital goods orders (cleanest capex signal) alongside headline orders. Aircraft orders (especially Boeing) can distort headline prints significantly.
Per-Asset Deep Dives
Dedicated analysis of how this scenario affects each asset class individually.
XLI underperforms sharply as industrial companies face order slowdowns.
Materials pressured as input demand weakens.
Broad market underperforms on capex weakness signal.
Bonds rally on capex weakness and implied growth slowdown.
Cyclicals sharply underperform defensives during capex downturns.
Dollar can strengthen on safe-haven demand or weaken on Fed pivot expectations.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, HY Credit Spread (OAS) typically responds to the changing macro environment. ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, the market's price of default risk. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for HY Credit Spread (OAS). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and HY Credit Spread (OAS)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, IG Credit Spread (OAS) typically responds to the changing macro environment. ICE BofA Investment Grade OAS, credit stress in high-quality corporate bonds. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for IG Credit Spread (OAS). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and IG Credit Spread (OAS)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, HY Effective Yield typically responds to the changing macro environment. HY corporate bond effective yield, total return required by junk bond investors. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for HY Effective Yield. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and HY Effective Yield's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, IG Effective Yield typically responds to the changing macro environment. IG corporate bond effective yield, cost of investment-grade corporate borrowing. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for IG Effective Yield. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and IG Effective Yield's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, BBB Credit Spread typically responds to the changing macro environment. BBB-rated corporate bond OAS, the lowest rung of investment grade. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for BBB Credit Spread. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and BBB Credit Spread's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, AAA Credit Spread typically responds to the changing macro environment. AAA-rated corporate bond OAS, flight-to-quality indicator. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for AAA Credit Spread. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and AAA Credit Spread's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Aaa-10Y Treasury Spread typically responds to the changing macro environment. Moody's Aaa corporate minus 10Y Treasury, credit risk premium for top-rated corporates. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Aaa-10Y Treasury Spread. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Aaa-10Y Treasury Spread's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Baa-10Y Treasury Spread typically responds to the changing macro environment. Moody's Baa minus 10Y Treasury, a wider measure of corporate credit risk. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Baa-10Y Treasury Spread. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Baa-10Y Treasury Spread's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Financial Conditions (NFCI) typically responds to the changing macro environment. Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, positive = tighter than average. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Financial Conditions (NFCI). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Financial Conditions (NFCI)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Adjusted NFCI typically responds to the changing macro environment. NFCI adjusted for prevailing economic conditions, isolates financial stress from the cycle. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Adjusted NFCI. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Adjusted NFCI's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Financial Stress Index (StL) typically responds to the changing macro environment. St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, below zero = below-average stress. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Financial Stress Index (StL). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Financial Stress Index (StL)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, SLOOS: C&I Loan Tightening typically responds to the changing macro environment. Senior Loan Officer Survey, net % of banks tightening standards on C&I loans. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for SLOOS: C&I Loan Tightening. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and SLOOS: C&I Loan Tightening's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, SLOOS: Credit Card Tightening typically responds to the changing macro environment. Net % of banks tightening credit card lending standards. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for SLOOS: Credit Card Tightening. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and SLOOS: Credit Card Tightening's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Credit Card Delinquency Rate typically responds to the changing macro environment. Delinquency rate on credit card loans, consumer stress indicator. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Credit Card Delinquency Rate. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Credit Card Delinquency Rate's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, WTI Crude Oil (FRED) typically responds to the changing macro environment. West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for WTI Crude Oil (FRED). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and WTI Crude Oil (FRED)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Brent Crude Oil (FRED) typically responds to the changing macro environment. Brent crude oil spot price, the global benchmark. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Brent Crude Oil (FRED). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Brent Crude Oil (FRED)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Henry Hub Natural Gas typically responds to the changing macro environment. Henry Hub natural gas spot price, US benchmark. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Henry Hub Natural Gas. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Henry Hub Natural Gas's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Copper Price (Global) typically responds to the changing macro environment. Global copper price, "Dr. Copper" is a leading economic indicator. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Copper Price (Global). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Copper Price (Global)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, EM Dollar Index typically responds to the changing macro environment. Dollar index weighted by emerging-market trading partners. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for EM Dollar Index. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and EM Dollar Index's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, EUR/USD typically responds to the changing macro environment. Euro to US dollar exchange rate. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for EUR/USD. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and EUR/USD's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, JPY/USD typically responds to the changing macro environment. Japanese yen to US dollar exchange rate. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for JPY/USD. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and JPY/USD's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, CNY/USD typically responds to the changing macro environment. Chinese yuan to US dollar exchange rate. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for CNY/USD. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and CNY/USD's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, BRL/USD typically responds to the changing macro environment. Brazilian real to US dollar exchange rate. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for BRL/USD. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and BRL/USD's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Real Effective Exchange Rate typically responds to the changing macro environment. BIS real effective exchange rate for the US dollar, inflation-adjusted competitiveness. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Real Effective Exchange Rate. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Real Effective Exchange Rate's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Trade Balance typically responds to the changing macro environment. US trade balance in goods and services, negative = trade deficit. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Trade Balance. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Trade Balance's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Gold (Spot) typically responds to the changing macro environment. Gold spot price, the ultimate safe haven and inflation hedge. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Gold (Spot). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Gold (Spot)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, WTI Crude Oil typically responds to the changing macro environment. WTI crude oil price from market feeds. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for WTI Crude Oil. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and WTI Crude Oil's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Brent Crude Oil typically responds to the changing macro environment. Brent crude oil price, the global benchmark. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Brent Crude Oil. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Brent Crude Oil's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Natural Gas typically responds to the changing macro environment. Natural gas spot price. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Natural Gas. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Natural Gas's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) typically responds to the changing macro environment. Invesco QQQ tracking the Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Dow Jones ETF (DIA) typically responds to the changing macro environment. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, tracks the 30 blue-chip Dow components. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Dow Jones ETF (DIA). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Dow Jones ETF (DIA)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) typically responds to the changing macro environment. iShares Russell 2000 ETF, small-cap equity benchmark. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) typically responds to the changing macro environment. Equal-weight S&P 500, measures market breadth vs cap-weighted SPY. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Emerging Markets (EEM) typically responds to the changing macro environment. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Emerging Markets (EEM). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Emerging Markets (EEM)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, China Large-Cap (FXI) typically responds to the changing macro environment. iShares China Large-Cap ETF, proxy for Chinese equity market. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for China Large-Cap (FXI). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and China Large-Cap (FXI)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, EAFE Developed (EFA) typically responds to the changing macro environment. iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, developed markets excluding US and Canada. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for EAFE Developed (EFA). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and EAFE Developed (EFA)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Germany / DAX (EWG) typically responds to the changing macro environment. iShares MSCI Germany ETF, proxy for the DAX and German equity market. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Germany / DAX (EWG). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Germany / DAX (EWG)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Japan / Nikkei (EWJ) typically responds to the changing macro environment. iShares MSCI Japan ETF, proxy for the Nikkei 225 and Japanese equity market. This scenario is particularly relevant for equity index because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Japan / Nikkei (EWJ). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Japan / Nikkei (EWJ)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, High Yield Credit (HYG) typically responds to the changing macro environment. iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for High Yield Credit (HYG). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and High Yield Credit (HYG)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, IG Credit (LQD) typically responds to the changing macro environment. iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for IG Credit (LQD). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and IG Credit (LQD)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Gold ETF (GLD) typically responds to the changing macro environment. SPDR Gold Shares, largest gold ETF. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Gold ETF (GLD). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Gold ETF (GLD)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Oil ETF (USO) typically responds to the changing macro environment. United States Oil Fund, WTI crude oil futures ETF. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Oil ETF (USO). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Oil ETF (USO)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, Agriculture ETF (DBA) typically responds to the changing macro environment. Invesco DB Agriculture Fund, broad agricultural commodities. This scenario is particularly relevant for commodities because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for Agriculture ETF (DBA). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Agriculture ETF (DBA)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, US Dollar Bull (UUP) typically responds to the changing macro environment. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for US Dollar Bull (UUP). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and US Dollar Bull (UUP)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, GBP/USD (FRED) typically responds to the changing macro environment. GBP/USD exchange rate from FRED. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for GBP/USD (FRED). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and GBP/USD (FRED)'s response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, GBP/USD typically responds to the changing macro environment. GBP/USD spot rate from Yahoo Finance. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for GBP/USD. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and GBP/USD's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, EUR/GBP typically responds to the changing macro environment. EUR/GBP spot rate. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for EUR/GBP. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and EUR/GBP's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, CAD/USD typically responds to the changing macro environment. Canadian dollar per US dollar. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for CAD/USD. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and CAD/USD's response to position accordingly.
When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, MXN/USD typically responds to the changing macro environment. Mexican peso per US dollar. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for MXN/USD. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and MXN/USD's response to position accordingly.
Frequently Asked Questions
What triggers the "Durable Goods Orders Plummet" scenario?▾
The scenario activates when declines 10%+ month-over-month. The trigger metric and its current reading are shown on this page, so the live state of the scenario is always visible rather than abstract. Convex tracks this trigger continuously and flags crossings within hours.
Which assets are most affected when this scenario unfolds?▾
The Market Impact section lists the full asset-by-asset response, but the primary affected assets include: Industrial Sector (XLI), Materials (XLB), US Equities (S&P 500), Treasury Bonds (TLT). Each asset has historically shown a characteristic pattern of response that is described in detail on the per-asset deep-dive pages linked below.
How often has this scenario played out historically?▾
Durable goods orders have seen sharp declines during every recession: 2008-2009 (peak -40% YoY), 2020 (-60% in April), and 2001 (peak -25%). Post-COVID orders have been elevated due to pent-up demand, supply chain catch-up, and AI-related capex (semiconductors, data center equipment). Core capital goods orders have been particularly resilient in 2023-2024.
What should I watch for next?▾
The most important signals to track while this scenario is active: Core capital goods orders YoY turning negative; ISM Manufacturing new orders below 45. The full list is on this page under "What to Watch For." These signals are the ones that historically preceded the scenario either resolving or accelerating.
How should I interpret the current state of this scenario?▾
Track core capital goods orders (cleanest capex signal) alongside headline orders. Aircraft orders (especially Boeing) can distort headline prints significantly.
Is this a prediction or a conditional analysis?▾
This is conditional analysis, not a prediction that the scenario will happen. Convex describes what typically follows once the trigger fires and shows how close or far the current data is from that trigger. The page is informational; it does not constitute financial advice.
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This content is educational and for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Historical patterns do not guarantee future results. Data sourced from FRED, market feeds, and public economic releases.