Long Bonds vs S&P 500
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The stock-bond correlation is the most important relationship in portfolio construction. When TLT and SPY move together (positive correlation), the traditional 60/40 portfolio breaks down and diversification fails. When they move inversely, bonds provide insurance against equity drawdowns. This comparison reveals whether the macro regime supports or undermines balanced portfolios.
Cross-Asset Analysis
20Y+ Treasury (TLT) measures iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, long-duration rates proxy, while S&P 500 ETF (SPY) measures SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index; tracking the two side by side turns that distinction into a tradable signal for the cross asset pair relationship. 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) originate in different asset classes, and the interaction between them captures cross-asset macro dynamics that neither alone can articulate. Analysts merge 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) with S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to build cross-asset indicators that are tougher to game than any single-market series. Policy interventions can synthetically compress or widen the 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread, most notably when central banks absorb specific asset classes.
Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar underlie most cross-asset relationships, and when these change 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) both respond at varying speeds. Asset-specific shocks in either 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY) produce spread moves unrelated to the broader macro story. Tactical allocators reposition across the 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread based on where each asset sits relative to its fundamental anchor.
Structural shifts hitting 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY), including retail demand or regulatory changes, can durably reshape the relationship.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) typically lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
20Y+ Treasury (TLT) tends to lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) precede corresponding moves in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Divergence between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Is 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) a hedge for S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Cross-asset hedges between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.