S&P 500 vs International Developed
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The US vs international developed market spread has been a one-way trade for years, but it reverses violently during regime changes. When the dollar weakens, European and Japanese exporters benefit. This comparison tracks the "US exceptionalism" thesis and whether global capital is rotating out of overweight US positions.
Cross-Asset Analysis
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index) and EAFE Developed (EFA) (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, developed markets excluding US and Canada) are priced in separate markets, yet their co-movement tells macro desks something neither series reveals alone. Sector, style, and geographic dominance cycles each produce multi-year relative performance episodes between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA). A peer comparison like S&P 500 ETF (SPY) versus EAFE Developed (EFA) strips out the common-factor beta and leaves behind the differences in sector mix, capitalization, style, or geography.
Index construction choices inside S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA), including weighting methodology and inclusion rules, create persistent tilts that show up in the spread. Mid-cycle stretches see the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-EAFE Developed (EFA) spread compress as macro volatility stays low and factor returns normalize. Performance attribution leans on S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-EAFE Developed (EFA) spreads to separate security selection from style allocation inside multi-manager mandates.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA) occupy the same asset class, and the relative performance between them isolates the specific factor that distinguishes one from the other. Corporate action events, including buybacks or spin-offs affecting constituents of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or EAFE Developed (EFA), can distort the spread relative to its intended factor tilt.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA)?+
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA) are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does S&P 500 ETF (SPY) typically lead EAFE Developed (EFA)?+
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tends to lead EAFE Developed (EFA) during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) precede corresponding moves in EAFE Developed (EFA) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA) varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-EAFE Developed (EFA) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA)?+
Divergence between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA) typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or EAFE Developed (EFA).
Is S&P 500 ETF (SPY) a hedge for EAFE Developed (EFA)?+
Peers like S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and EAFE Developed (EFA) do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-EAFE Developed (EFA) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.