30Y Mortgage Rate vs S&P 500
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Rising mortgage rates pressure consumer wealth and spending, a drag on SPY earnings. When SPY rallies despite high mortgage rates, strong labor market and wage growth offset housing weakness. When SPY falls with falling mortgage rates, rate relief arrives as recession damages earnings outlook. The ratio reveals consumer-driven equity dynamics.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs 30Y Mortgage Rate (30-year fixed mortgage rate, the primary driver of housing affordability) against S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the cross asset pair relationship. Risk-off regimes tighten correlations and push the 30Y Mortgage Rate-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread into tighter ranges. The bridge between 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) runs through shared macro drivers, and isolating the spread separates common factors from idiosyncratic noise.
Correlation trading desks price options on the 30Y Mortgage Rate-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread once the core relationship has been quantified across enough regimes. Regime classification based on 30Y Mortgage Rate-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) can be self-reinforcing, because extreme spread values often snap back via mean reversion or regime change. Cross-asset flows follow macro regime changes with characteristic lags, which is why spreads like 30Y Mortgage Rate-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) often front-run coincident indicators.
Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar underlie most cross-asset relationships, and when these change 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) both respond at different speeds. Macro funds use the 30Y Mortgage Rate-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread to articulate views cleaner than single-asset trades, distilling the specific macro factor they want to bet on.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 30Y Mortgage Rate typically lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
30Y Mortgage Rate tends to lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in 30Y Mortgage Rate precede corresponding moves in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 30Y Mortgage Rate-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Divergence between 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 30Y Mortgage Rate or S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Is 30Y Mortgage Rate a hedge for S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Cross-asset hedges between 30Y Mortgage Rate and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 30Y Mortgage Rate-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.