Germany (EWG) vs S&P 500
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Germany is the most cyclical developed economy with heavy exports to China and deep automotive and industrials exposure. EWG versus SPY captures the global manufacturing cycle. When EWG outperforms, global growth is strong and cyclical rotation is working. When SPY dominates, the cycle is US-centric and tech-led.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: Germany / DAX (EWG) represents iShares MSCI Germany ETF, proxy for the DAX and German equity market and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) represents SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index, which is why this comparison sits in the peer pair category on Convex. Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) look similar at a glance, but the embedded factor tilts between them matter meaningfully over time. Factor exposures embedded inside Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) drive their relative performance, with growth-value, large-small, and domestic-international all surfacing in the spread.
Flows matter for the Germany / DAX (EWG)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relationship: when one peer attracts more capital, it outperforms on demand pressure that often mean-reverts. Structural changes inside Germany / DAX (EWG) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY), such as index reconstitution or methodology shifts, can break historical spread relationships in discrete jumps. Late-cycle environments force Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to express their respective defensive and cyclical tilts more sharply, making the spread a useful regime tell.
In bull markets the more aggressive peer between Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) usually leads, while bear markets shift leadership toward the more defensive peer. Corporate action events, including buybacks or spin-offs affecting constituents of Germany / DAX (EWG) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY), can distort the spread relative to its intended factor tilt.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Germany / DAX (EWG) typically lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Germany / DAX (EWG) tends to lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY) during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in Germany / DAX (EWG) precede corresponding moves in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Germany / DAX (EWG)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Divergence between Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Germany / DAX (EWG) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Is Germany / DAX (EWG) a hedge for S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Peers like Germany / DAX (EWG) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Germany / DAX (EWG)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.