Oil ETF (USO) vs S&P 500
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
USO offers liquid oil exposure comparable to SPY for equity exposure. USO/SPY captures the broad commodity-equity rotation without requiring sector-specific bets. When USO leads SPY, commodities are outperforming equities in a broader reflation phase. When SPY leads USO, equity-led bull markets dominate.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: Oil ETF (USO) represents united States Oil Fund, WTI crude oil futures ETF and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) represents SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index, which is why this comparison sits in the cross asset pair category on Convex. Implied volatility regimes in Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) transmit through dealer flows that connect one venue to the other via dealer balance sheets. Watching Oil ETF (USO) together with S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gives insight into how macro factors transmit across different parts of the global market structure.
Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar drive most cross-asset relationships, and when these change Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) both respond at varying speeds. Correlation trading desks price options on the Oil ETF (USO)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread once the underlying relationship has been calibrated across adequate regimes. Cross-asset flows follow macro regime changes with well-documented lags, which is why spreads like Oil ETF (USO)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) often precede coincident indicators.
Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) originate in different asset classes, and the interaction between them captures cross-asset macro dynamics that neither alone can convey. Risk-off regimes concentrate correlations and push the Oil ETF (USO)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread into cramped ranges.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Oil ETF (USO) typically lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Oil ETF (USO) tends to lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Oil ETF (USO) precede corresponding moves in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Oil ETF (USO)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Divergence between Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Oil ETF (USO) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Is Oil ETF (USO) a hedge for S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Cross-asset hedges between Oil ETF (USO) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Oil ETF (USO)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.