S&P 500 vs 10Y Treasury Yield
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The stock-bond relationship has evolved. From 2000-2021 stocks and bonds moved inversely (stocks up, yields down). Post-2022, stocks and yields often rise together as markets focus on growth rather than duration. The SPY/10Y relationship is critical for asset allocation and reveals the dominant macro regime.
Cross-Asset Analysis
Before getting to the spread, note what each leg actually represents: S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index, and 10Y Treasury Yield is yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark. The Equity Index and Yield Curve & Rates corners of the market share underlying drivers but vary in sensitivity, and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-10Y Treasury Yield spread captures those sensitivities. S&P 500 ETF (SPY) belongs to the Equity Index space, and 10Y Treasury Yield belongs to Yield Curve & Rates, and the interaction between those two worlds is where the interesting macro information surfaces.
Name-specific shocks in either S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or 10Y Treasury Yield produce spread moves unrelated to the underlying macro story. Policy-driven transitions trigger fast repricing into the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-10Y Treasury Yield relationship because the two markets adjust to policy guidance on different timescales. Leverage embedded in the separate markets behind S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield amplifies the same shock at uneven magnitudes.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield sit in different asset classes, and the interaction between them encodes cross-asset macro dynamics that neither alone can articulate. Analysts pair S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with 10Y Treasury Yield to build cross-asset indicators that are harder to game than any single-market series.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does S&P 500 ETF (SPY) typically lead 10Y Treasury Yield?+
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) tends to lead 10Y Treasury Yield during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) precede corresponding moves in 10Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-10Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or 10Y Treasury Yield.
Is S&P 500 ETF (SPY) a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Cross-asset hedges between S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 10Y Treasury Yield work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-10Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.