Industrials (XLI) vs S&P 500
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
XLI versus SPY is a cyclical leadership gauge. Industrial outperformance signals robust capex, aerospace strength, or reshoring-driven infrastructure investment. Underperformance typically accompanies manufacturing PMI contractions, global trade slowdowns, or capex cycles turning down after peak expansion.
Cross-Asset Analysis
Industrials (XLI) (industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (SPDR S&P 500 ETF, tracks the benchmark US equity index) are priced in separate markets, yet their co-movement tells macro desks something neither series reveals alone. Correlation trading desks quote options on the Industrials (XLI)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread once the base relationship has been quantified across enough regimes. Risk-off regimes concentrate correlations and compress the Industrials (XLI)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread into tighter ranges.
Idiosyncratic shocks in either Industrials (XLI) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY) produce spread moves independent of the broader macro story. Tactical allocators rebalance across the Industrials (XLI)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) spread based on where each asset sits relative to its model anchor. Analysts merge Industrials (XLI) with S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to build cross-asset indicators that are harder to game than any single-market series.
Cross-asset flows follow macro regime changes with characteristic lags, which is why spreads like Industrials (XLI)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) often front-run coincident indicators. Watching Industrials (XLI) together with S&P 500 ETF (SPY) provides insight into how macro factors propagate across different parts of the global market structure.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Industrials (XLI) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Industrials (XLI) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Industrials (XLI) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Industrials (XLI) typically lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Industrials (XLI) tends to lead S&P 500 ETF (SPY) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Industrials (XLI) precede corresponding moves in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Industrials (XLI) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Industrials (XLI) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Industrials (XLI)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Industrials (XLI) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Divergence between Industrials (XLI) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Industrials (XLI) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Is Industrials (XLI) a hedge for S&P 500 ETF (SPY)?+
Cross-asset hedges between Industrials (XLI) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Industrials (XLI)-S&P 500 ETF (SPY) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.