SOFR
SOFR is the benchmark interest rate based on overnight Treasury repurchase agreement transactions, replacing LIBOR as the primary reference rate for U.S. dollar financial products.
We are in a STABLE STAGFLATION regime — growth decelerating (GDPNow 1.3%) while inflation remains sticky and potentially re-accelerating (Cleveland nowcasts alarming). The Fed is trapped at 3.75%, unable to cut or hike without making one problem worse. Net liquidity expansion ($5.95trn, +$151bn 1M) …
What Is SOFR?
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is the benchmark interest rate that replaced LIBOR as the primary reference rate for U.S. dollar-denominated loans, derivatives, and other financial products. Published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, SOFR measures the cost of overnight borrowing collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities in the repo market.
SOFR is based on approximately $1 trillion in daily transaction volume, making it one of the most robust benchmark rates in the world. Its foundation in observable market transactions, rather than bank estimates, addresses the fundamental weakness that led to LIBOR's demise.
Why It Matters for Markets
SOFR underpins trillions of dollars in financial contracts and is central to the functioning of U.S. dollar funding markets. Its level and volatility directly affect borrowing costs for corporations, consumers, and financial institutions. Because SOFR is an overnight rate, its value is closely tied to Federal Reserve monetary policy; it trades very close to the Fed's target range.
For traders and investors, SOFR dynamics provide insight into short-term funding conditions. Spikes in SOFR (like the September 2019 repo market disruption) signal stress in the funding markets. The spread between SOFR and other short-term rates reveals the relative cost of secured versus unsecured funding and the demand for Treasury collateral.
The transition to SOFR from LIBOR was one of the most significant structural changes in financial markets. It affected the pricing and documentation of virtually every variable-rate financial instrument denominated in U.S. dollars. Understanding SOFR's mechanics and behavior is now essential for anyone involved in fixed-income markets, lending, or derivatives.
SOFR Structure and Term Rates
While overnight SOFR is the foundational rate, the market has developed additional SOFR-based measures. SOFR Averages (30-day, 90-day, 180-day) provide backward-looking compounded rates. CME Term SOFR provides forward-looking rates for 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month tenors, derived from SOFR futures pricing. These term rates serve as the closest analogue to LIBOR's term structure and are widely used in loan markets.
The development of a SOFR term structure was critical for the LIBOR transition because many loan contracts require a known interest rate at the beginning of each payment period. While some contracts use backward-looking compounded SOFR (calculated in arrears), many borrowers and lenders prefer the simplicity of forward-looking Term SOFR.
Frequently Asked Questions
▶What is SOFR and how is it calculated?
▶How does SOFR differ from LIBOR?
▶What financial products use SOFR?
SOFR is one of the signals monitored daily in the AI-driven macro analysis on Convex Trading. The platform synthesises data across monetary policy, credit, sentiment, and on-chain metrics to generate actionable trade recommendations. Create a free account to build your own signal layer and see how SOFR is influencing current positions.
Macro briefings in your inbox
Daily analysis that explains which glossary signals are firing and why.