Quits Rate (JOLTS)

What Is the Quits Rate?

The Quits Rate (JTSQUR on FRED) is a monthly BLS-published measure of voluntary separations as a percentage of total employment. It is part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and represents the cleanest available signal of worker confidence about the labour market.

The quits rate captures only voluntary separations — workers choosing to leave their current job. It excludes layoffs, retirements, and other involuntary separations. A worker who quits typically does so because they expect better opportunities elsewhere, which makes the quits rate a real-time gauge of the labour-market-from-the-worker's-perspective.

Why It Matters for Markets

The quits rate is the most reliable single signal of wage-inflation persistence. Workers who change jobs receive average pay increases of 8-15%, compared with 3-5% for workers who stay. When quits are elevated, the labour market sees high turnover and substantial annual wage increases as the marginal pay-setting mechanism. When quits decelerate, wage growth follows within 6-12 months.

The Fed has cited the quits rate explicitly in speeches throughout the 2022-2025 cycle as a primary input to the assessment of labour-market tightness. The deceleration of quits from the 3.0% peak in late 2021 to roughly 2.0% by 2024 was the Fed's clearest evidence that the labour-market-to-inflation transmission was breaking.

How to Read the Print

Quits rate vs hires rate. The quits-to-hires ratio shows whether the labour market is in expansion or contraction. A ratio close to 1.0 means hires and quits are roughly balanced; a ratio above 1.0 means more workers are quitting than being hired; a ratio below 1.0 means net employment is growing.

Sector breakdown. The BLS publishes the quits rate by industry. Leisure-and-hospitality has the highest quits rate (often above 5%), reflecting its high turnover; professional services and manufacturing have lower rates. Watch sector-level deceleration as a leading indicator of broader normalisation.

State-level dispersion. State-level quits rates capture regional labour-market dynamics. Persistent dispersion across states signals regional wage pressure that may not show up in national aggregates.

Historical Context

JOLTS data begin in December 2000. The 2010-2019 average quits rate was approximately 2.1%. The 2021 peak of 3.0% (often called "The Great Resignation") was the highest in the data series and signalled extreme labour-market tightness combined with extraordinary worker confidence.

Through 2024-2025, the quits rate decelerated to roughly 2.0-2.1%, back to the 2010s norm. The deceleration was steady rather than abrupt, providing the Fed with the soft-landing signature it needed to begin cutting rates in September 2024 without triggering a recession.