Import Price Index

import pricesimport price dataMXP

The Import Price Index measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased from other countries, providing insight into imported inflation and the impact of currency and trade dynamics on domestic prices.

Current Macro RegimeSTAGFLATION→ STABLE

The macro regime is STAGFLATION STABLE — growth decelerating (GDPNow 1.3%, consumer sentiment 56.6, housing deeply contractionary) while inflation is sticky-to-rising (Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast 5.28%, PCE Nowcast 4.58%, GSCPI elevated). The bear steepening yield curve (30Y +10bp, 10Y +7bp 1M) with r…

Analysis from Apr 18, 2026

What Is the Import Price Index?

The Import Price Index (MXP) is a monthly indicator published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics measuring the change in prices of goods and services imported into the United States. It covers all categories of imports, including industrial supplies, capital goods, automotive products, consumer goods, and food. The BLS also publishes an Export Price Index alongside it.

The headline index includes all imports, while the "ex-petroleum" measure strips out the volatile oil component to reveal underlying import price trends.

Why It Matters for Markets

Import prices are a key transmission channel for global economic forces into the U.S. economy. They capture the inflation impact of foreign production costs, exchange rate movements, commodity price changes, tariff policies, and global supply chain dynamics.

For inflation analysis, import prices provide early signals about the external contribution to domestic price pressures. During periods of dollar weakness, rising import prices add to inflationary pressure. During dollar strength, falling import prices provide a deflationary offset. This channel is one reason the Fed monitors dollar movements even though the exchange rate is not explicitly in its mandate.

The import price data is released a few days before CPI each month, providing an early indicator of goods inflation pressures from foreign sources. Economists factor import price trends into their CPI forecasts, as imported goods represent a significant share of the consumer basket.

Trade Policy and Import Prices

Trade policy has become an increasingly important driver of import prices. Tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, European products, and other trading partners directly increase import costs. The Import Price Index captures these policy-driven price changes, making it a useful tool for assessing the inflationary impact of trade wars and protectionist measures.

The pass-through from tariffs to consumer prices depends on several factors: the share of final price attributable to the import cost; whether domestic producers raise prices in response to reduced foreign competition; and whether importers and retailers absorb some of the tariff cost to maintain competitiveness. Analyzing import prices by country of origin helps isolate the impact of country-specific tariffs from broader global price trends.

Frequently Asked Questions

▶How do import prices affect inflation?

Import prices directly influence domestic inflation because imported goods account for a significant share of U.S. consumption. When import prices rise (due to currency depreciation, foreign inflation, tariffs, or supply disruptions), the cost of imported consumer goods, industrial inputs, and energy increases. These higher costs are passed through to domestic producers and ultimately to consumers, contributing to CPI and PCE inflation. A weaker dollar raises import prices (foreign goods cost more in dollar terms), while a stronger dollar reduces them. Oil prices are a major component of import prices and can dominate the headline reading.

▶What is the relationship between import prices and the dollar?

The dollar's value has a significant inverse relationship with import prices. When the dollar strengthens, goods priced in foreign currencies become cheaper in dollar terms, reducing import prices. When the dollar weakens, the same goods cost more in dollars, raising import prices. This "exchange rate pass-through" is a key channel through which currency movements affect domestic inflation. The pass-through is not complete or immediate; it varies by product (commodities pass through quickly, manufactured goods more slowly) and by how much of the supply chain is dollar-denominated. Over time, sustained dollar weakness tends to raise import prices and contribute to inflation.

▶How do tariffs affect the Import Price Index?

Tariffs directly increase import prices because the tariff (a tax on imports) is factored into the price measured by the index. The Import Price Index measures the cost of goods as they arrive at U.S. ports, including any applicable tariffs. During the 2018-2019 trade war with China, import prices from China rose reflecting tariff increases, though the effect was partially offset by Chinese exporters absorbing some of the cost and by the dollar's appreciation. The magnitude of tariff pass-through depends on market structure, competition, and the elasticity of demand and supply. Tariff-driven import price increases can contribute to both CPI and PPI inflation.

Import Price Index is one of the signals monitored daily in the AI-driven macro analysis on Convex Trading. The platform synthesises data across monetary policy, credit, sentiment, and on-chain metrics to generate actionable trade recommendations. Create a free account to build your own signal layer and see how Import Price Index is influencing current positions.

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