CONVEX
Glossary/Options & Derivatives/Iron Condor
Options & Derivatives
2 min readUpdated Apr 16, 2026

Iron Condor

condor spreadIC

An iron condor is a neutral options strategy that profits when the underlying stock stays within a defined price range, combining a bull put spread and a bear call spread.

Current Macro RegimeSTAGFLATIONSTABLE

We are in a STABLE STAGFLATION regime — growth decelerating (GDPNow 1.3%) while inflation remains sticky and potentially re-accelerating (Cleveland nowcasts alarming). The Fed is trapped at 3.75%, unable to cut or hike without making one problem worse. Net liquidity expansion ($5.95trn, +$151bn 1M) …

Analysis from Apr 19, 2026

What Is an Iron Condor?

An iron condor is a four-leg options strategy designed to profit from low volatility. It involves simultaneously selling a put credit spread (bull put spread) and a call credit spread (bear call spread) on the same underlying with the same expiration. The strategy collects premium upfront and profits when the underlying stays within the range defined by the two sold strikes.

The "iron" designation means the strategy uses both calls and puts; a regular condor uses only one type. The iron condor is one of the most popular neutral/income-generating strategies among active options traders.

Why Iron Condors Matter

Iron condors are important because they represent a pure volatility-selling strategy with defined risk:

  • Profit from time: The strategy benefits from theta decay. Every day the stock stays in the profit zone, the options sold lose value
  • Defined risk: Unlike naked strangles, iron condors have defined maximum loss (the spread width minus premium), making them margin-efficient and risk-calculable
  • Neutral directional bias: Profits from the absence of movement rather than betting on direction
  • High probability: Standard iron condors (sold at ~1 standard deviation) have 60-70% probability of expiring fully profitable

Managing Iron Condors

The key to iron condor profitability is management, not setup:

  • Take profits early: Close at 50-75% of maximum profit. The last 25-50% of profit carries disproportionate risk because gamma increases as the stock nears expiration
  • Cut losses: If the stock breaches a sold strike, the trade is under pressure. Close the threatened side for a loss to prevent maximum loss. Common exit rules include closing when the loss equals 2x the credit received
  • Roll the tested side: If one side is threatened, you can roll it to a later expiration (collecting additional premium) or adjust the untested side closer to the current price (adding credit)
  • Avoid earnings: Iron condors should not span earnings dates. The gap risk from an earnings surprise can blow through both sides of the condor

The profit zone is the range between the two sold strikes. Wider sold strikes increase the probability of profit but reduce the premium collected. Narrower sold strikes collect more premium but have a smaller profit zone. Finding the right balance is the art of iron condor trading.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does an iron condor work?
An iron condor consists of four options at four different strike prices with the same expiration: sell an OTM put, buy a further OTM put (lower strike), sell an OTM call, and buy a further OTM call (higher strike). The maximum profit is the net premium received, earned when the stock expires between the two sold strikes. Maximum loss is the width of either spread minus the premium received, occurring if the stock moves beyond either outer strike. For example, on a $100 stock: buy $90 put, sell $92 put, sell $108 call, buy $110 call for a net credit of $1.00. Max profit: $100. Max loss: $100.
When should you use an iron condor?
Iron condors are ideal when you expect the stock to trade within a range and when implied volatility is elevated (making the premiums you collect more generous). The best setups are high IV rank (IV higher than its recent average), no upcoming catalysts within the options timeframe, historical tendency for the stock to trade within the selected range, and 30-45 DTE for optimal theta capture. Avoid iron condors before earnings or other binary events, on momentum stocks making new highs/lows, or when IV is at historical lows (the premium collected may not adequately compensate for the risk taken).
What is the win rate of iron condors?
When properly structured (selling strikes at approximately 1 standard deviation, or the 16-delta level), iron condors have a theoretical win rate of approximately 60-70%. However, the wins are small (the premium collected) and the losses can be larger (the spread width minus premium). This means a few losing trades can erase many winning trades. Successful iron condor traders manage risk by closing positions at 50-75% of max profit (rather than holding to expiration), adjusting or closing when the stock approaches a sold strike, and sizing positions conservatively (risking no more than 2-5% of portfolio per condor).

Iron Condor is one of the signals monitored daily in the AI-driven macro analysis on Convex Trading. The platform synthesises data across monetary policy, credit, sentiment, and on-chain metrics to generate actionable trade recommendations. Create a free account to build your own signal layer and see how Iron Condor is influencing current positions.

ShareXRedditLinkedInHN

Macro briefings in your inbox

Daily analysis that explains which glossary signals are firing and why.