Insider Trading
Insider trading is the illegal practice of buying or selling securities based on material non-public information, or the legal practice of corporate insiders trading their own company stock with proper disclosure.
We are in a STABLE STAGFLATION regime — growth decelerating (GDPNow 1.3%) while inflation remains sticky and potentially re-accelerating (Cleveland nowcasts alarming). The Fed is trapped at 3.75%, unable to cut or hike without making one problem worse. Net liquidity expansion ($5.95trn, +$151bn 1M) …
What Is Insider Trading?
Insider trading encompasses both legal and illegal activity. Legal insider trading occurs when corporate officers, directors, or significant shareholders buy or sell their own company's stock and properly report it to the SEC. Illegal insider trading occurs when anyone trades securities based on material, non-public information (MNPI), which is information that would significantly impact the stock price if publicly known.
The distinction hinges on whether the trader possessed and used MNPI. An executive selling shares through a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan is legal. The same executive selling shares after learning about a failed drug trial before the announcement is illegal.
Why Insider Trading Data Matters
Legal insider transaction data is one of the most valuable, yet underused, signals available to investors. Corporate insiders have the deepest understanding of their company's prospects. When they voluntarily risk their own capital, it carries significant informational content.
The most predictive patterns include:
- Cluster buying: Three or more insiders buying within the same month is among the strongest bullish signals in equity markets
- CEO/CFO open-market purchases: The most informed insiders buying voluntarily (not through equity grants) signals confidence
- Buying after declines: Insiders purchasing during stock price weakness suggests the market has overreacted
- Selling intensity: While individual insider sales are noisy, a sudden spike in selling by multiple insiders can precede negative developments
How to Use Insider Data in Trading
Monitor Form 4 filings for your watchlist stocks. Focus on open-market purchases (not option exercises or grant-related transactions). Filter for transaction sizes that are material relative to the insider's net worth, a $50,000 purchase by a billionaire CEO is meaningless, but a $500,000 purchase by a division president earning $300,000 annually is highly significant.
Combine insider buying signals with other factors: if a stock has insider cluster buying, trades at a low valuation, and shows improving fundamentals, the confluence of bullish signals significantly increases the probability of outperformance.
Frequently Asked Questions
▶Is all insider trading illegal?
▶How do investors track legal insider trading?
▶What are the penalties for illegal insider trading?
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