Chicago PMI (ISM-Chicago)
The Chicago PMI is a monthly diffusion index of business activity in the Chicago region, the only regional PMI that survey both manufacturing and services firms together and an important regional read on Midwest economic conditions.
The macro regime is unambiguously STAGFLATION DEEPENING. The hot CPI print (pending event, 24h ago) is not a surprise — it is a CONFIRMATION of the pipeline signals that have been building for weeks: PPI accelerating faster than CPI, Cleveland nowcast at 5.28%, breakevens rising +10bp 1M across the …
What Is the Chicago PMI?
The Chicago PMI (ISM-Chicago Business Barometer) is a monthly diffusion index of business activity in the Chicago region. It is produced by ISM-Chicago (a regional ISM chapter, distinct from the national ISM) and surveys approximately 200 firms across both manufacturing and services.
Like the national ISM PMI, the Chicago PMI uses the 50-line expansion/contraction threshold and reports sub-indices for new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, prices paid, and order backlogs. The release is on the last business day of each month, one day before the national ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Why It Matters for Markets
The Chicago PMI is a top-tier regional manufacturing leading indicator because of its early release timing relative to ISM. It captures activity in a region with substantial manufacturing exposure (auto-and-parts, machinery, food processing), making it a relevant gauge of Midwest economic conditions.
For markets, the release moves manufacturing-sensitive equities and bond yields on surprises. The reaction is smaller than ISM Manufacturing (regional vs national) but the early timing makes Chicago PMI valuable for positioning ahead of the ISM release.
How to Read the Print
Headline PMI vs 50 line. Above 50 is expansion, below 50 is contraction. Sustained readings 5+ points below 50 signal regional manufacturing weakness.
New orders sub-index. Forward-looking; leads the headline by 1-2 months.
Production sub-index. The current-activity gauge. Useful for cross-checking against industrial production data when released.
Prices paid sub-index. The manufacturing-input inflation signal.
Order backlogs. The interplay between order backlogs and new orders reveals cycle dynamics. Rising backlogs with stable new orders signals a manufacturing acceleration; falling backlogs signal a deceleration.
Historical Context
Chicago PMI data goes back to 1967. The 2010-2019 average was approximately 56. The pandemic shock dropped the index to 32.3 in April 2020. The 2021 recovery brought it to a peak of 73.7 in May 2021.
Through 2024-2025, Chicago PMI has run in the 40-50 range, broadly tracking national manufacturing weakness. The persistent sub-50 readings have been a key signal of Midwest manufacturing softness, which has weighed on industrial-state employment and capex through the cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions
▶How does the Chicago PMI differ from the ISM PMI?
▶When is the Chicago PMI released?
▶What Chicago PMI level signals recession?
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