Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

What Is the Richmond Fed Index?

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly diffusion index of manufacturing activity in the Fifth Federal Reserve District (Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia, and DC). It is produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and follows the standard regional-Fed-survey methodology: diffusion indices scaled around zero for shipments, new orders, employment, and other sub-categories.

The Richmond Fed survey is released on the fourth Tuesday of each month, making it later in the monthly cycle than the Empire State or Philly Fed releases.

Why It Matters for Markets

The Richmond Fed is the manufacturing release for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region. The Fifth District has a more diversified economy than purely manufacturing-heavy regions, with substantial services, government, and military employment alongside manufacturing. The survey is particularly useful for understanding regional dynamics in textiles, furniture, food processing, and chemicals.

For markets, the release moves manufacturing-sensitive equities and bond yields on surprises but with smaller magnitude than ISM or earlier-in-the-month regional releases. The reaction is muted because the Richmond Fed lands later in the monthly data cycle.

How to Read the Print

Composite index vs zero line. Above zero is expansion, below zero is contraction.

Shipments and new orders sub-indices. Shipments captures current activity; new orders captures future activity. New orders leads shipments by 1-2 months.

Capacity utilization sub-index. The Richmond Fed asks about regional capacity utilization, which is a useful early read on the national capacity-utilization series.

Prices paid and prices received. The gap between prices paid (input costs) and prices received (output prices) is the regional manufacturing margin signal. Widening gaps in favor of prices paid signal margin pressure.

Historical Context

Richmond Fed data goes back to 1993. The 2010-2019 average was approximately 5. The pandemic shock dropped the headline to -55 in April 2020. The 2021 recovery brought the index to a peak of 27 in July 2021.

Through 2024-2025, the Richmond Fed has run in the -10 to +5 range, broadly tracking the weak national manufacturing picture but with regional variations driven by the Fifth District's specific industry mix. The persistent sub-zero readings reflect the broader manufacturing weakness that has characterised the cycle.