Recession Indicators
Sahm Rule, yield curve inversions, leading indicators, and recession probability models. Track the signals that have preceded every U.S. recession.
Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule — triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low — has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus.
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
monthlySahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970.
Leading Index for US
monthlyConference Board Leading Economic Index — composite of 10 leading indicators.
OECD Composite Leading Indicator
monthlyOECD CLI for the US — designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle.
Convex Recession Probability
dailyConvex Recession Probability Index — composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.
Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)
monthlyManufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft — core capex proxy.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated at varying frequencies. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.