Recession Indicators
Sahm Rule, yield curve inversions, leading indicators, and recession probability models. Track the signals that have preceded every U.S. recession.
Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule, triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus.
Data as of · 7 metrics with live data
Quick Answer
As of August 17, 2026, 0 of 8 classic US recession indicators are triggered, 2 are at watch levels, and 6 are clear. The Convex Recession Probability composite (CVRP) reads 15/100.
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The Signal Board
The eight indicators professionals actually watch, evaluated against their historical recession thresholds. Data as of August 17, 2026; each card links to the full live series.
10Y-2Y Yield Curve
CLEARPositive at +53 bp. The curve has re-steepened out of the 2022-2024 inversion; the standalone signal is dormant.
Trigger: Inversion (spread below 0). Short rates above long rates mean policy is tighter than the economy can bear: bank lending margins compress and credit contracts. Every recession since 1970 was preceded by a 10Y-2Y inversion.
10Y-3M Yield Curve
CLEARPositive at +85 bp. The curve has re-steepened out of the 2022-2024 inversion; the standalone signal is dormant.
Trigger: Inversion (spread below 0). The New York Fed’s preferred recession spread — the input to its official recession-probability model — comparing the 10-year yield with the 3-month bill.
Sahm Rule
CLEARAt 0.07, well below the 0.50 trigger. Unemployment is not accelerating relative to its 12-month low.
Trigger: Reading of 0.50 or higher. Created by economist Claudia Sahm: when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.50pp above its 12-month low, a recession has always already begun. Perfect real-time record since 1970.
Initial Jobless Claims (4-wk avg)
CLEARAt 199K (-2% over ~3 months) — layoffs remain historically low.
Trigger: Above 300K and rising 15%+ over 3 months. The highest-frequency labor signal available — weekly, with almost no revision. Sustained rises in the 4-week average lead payroll deterioration by 2-3 months.
Unemployment Rate (12-mo change)
CLEAR4.1% (+0.0pp vs a year ago) — broadly stable over the past year.
Trigger: Up 0.8pp or more from a year ago. Unemployment rises slowly, then all at once: once the rate climbs meaningfully off its low, the self-reinforcing spiral of lost income and reduced spending has historically been unstoppable short of policy intervention.
High Yield Credit Spreads
CLEARAt 270 bp, near cycle tights — the credit market is pricing essentially no recession risk.
Trigger: OAS above 550 bp. Credit markets price default risk in real time and typically widen before equities fall and before the economic data confirms. HY OAS above ~550 bp has accompanied every modern recession.
Payroll Growth (3-mo avg)
WATCHAveraging +20K/mo, below the ~75-100K pace needed to absorb labor-force growth.
Trigger: Negative 3-month average job growth. NBER recession dating aligns more closely with the first sustained stretch of negative payroll prints than with any other single series. Slowing average job growth is the glide path into that signal.
GDPNow (Atlanta Fed)
WATCHTracking 1.3%, below trend. Stall-speed growth leaves no buffer against a shock.
Trigger: Tracking below 0%. The Atlanta Fed’s running estimate of current-quarter real GDP growth, updated with each data release. It turns before official GDP prints, which arrive with a one-quarter lag.
One Number Instead of Eight: CVRP
The Convex Recession Probability (CVRP) distills the yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, and credit spreads into a single 0-100 composite, updated daily. It currently reads 15/100. A reading above 60 means most recession transmission channels are flashing at once.
Read the CVRP methodology & live chart →Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
monthlySahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970.
Leading Index for US
monthlyConference Board Leading Economic Index, composite of 10 leading indicators.
OECD Composite Leading Indicator
monthlyOECD CLI for the US, designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle.
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability
dailyCVRP, Convex Recession Probability composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.
Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)
monthlyManufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft, core capex proxy.
Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
monthlyBrave-Butters-Kelley dynamic factor leading index, a Chicago Fed academic composite of ~500 macro series.
US Recession Probability (Smoothed)
monthlyChauvet-Piger smoothed US recession probability from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model; probabilities above 80% reliably coincide with NBER-dated recessions.
Other Categories
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated at varying frequencies. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.