Credit & Financial Stress

Credit spreads, financial stress indexes, and default risk indicators. Monitor high-yield spreads, the TED spread, and systemic risk gauges in real time.

Credit markets are often the first to signal trouble. Widening high-yield spreads and rising financial stress indexes have historically led equity drawdowns by weeks or months. Tracking these gauges helps identify when risk appetite is contracting and defensive positioning is warranted.

HY Credit Spread (OAS)

daily
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ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread — the market's price of default risk.

IG Credit Spread (OAS)

daily
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ICE BofA Investment Grade OAS — credit stress in high-quality corporate bonds.

HY Effective Yield

daily
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HY corporate bond effective yield — total return required by junk bond investors.

IG Effective Yield

daily
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IG corporate bond effective yield — cost of investment-grade corporate borrowing.

BBB Credit Spread

daily
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BBB-rated corporate bond OAS — the lowest rung of investment grade.

AAA Credit Spread

daily
--

AAA-rated corporate bond OAS — flight-to-quality indicator.

Aaa-10Y Treasury Spread

daily
--

Moody's Aaa corporate minus 10Y Treasury — credit risk premium for top-rated corporates.

Baa-10Y Treasury Spread

daily
--

Moody's Baa minus 10Y Treasury — a wider measure of corporate credit risk.

Financial Conditions (NFCI)

weekly
--

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index — positive = tighter than average.

Adjusted NFCI

weekly
--

NFCI adjusted for prevailing economic conditions — isolates financial stress from the cycle.

Financial Stress Index (StL)

weekly
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St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index — below zero = below-average stress.

SLOOS: C&I Loan Tightening

quarterly
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Senior Loan Officer Survey — net % of banks tightening standards on C&I loans.

SLOOS: Credit Card Tightening

quarterly
--

Net % of banks tightening credit card lending standards.

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

quarterly
--

Delinquency rate on credit card loans — consumer stress indicator.

Convex Macro Stress Index

daily
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Convex Macro Stress Index — composite of VIX, HY spreads, NFCI, StL Financial Stress & credit delinquencies. 0-100 scale.

High Yield Credit (HYG)

daily
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iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF.

IG Credit (LQD)

daily
--

iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF.

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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated at varying frequencies. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.