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Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Brave-Butters-Kelley dynamic factor leading index, a Chicago Fed academic composite of ~500 macro series.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index is currently -0.22, last updated .

-0.22
1W -82.53%1M -82.53%3M -82.53%
Updated 5h ago
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Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule, triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus.

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Recent Data

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DateValueChange
Feb 1, 2026-0.22-82.53%
Jan 1, 2026-0.12-28.15%
Dec 1, 2025-0.09-187.14%
Nov 1, 20250.11-77.29%
Oct 1, 20250.46-35.00%
Sep 1, 20250.71-18.92%
Aug 1, 20250.88-19.75%
Jul 1, 20251.1+12.39%
Jun 1, 20250.98+24.20%
May 1, 20250.79+24.28%
Apr 1, 20250.63+101.73%
Mar 1, 20250.31+327.48%
Feb 1, 2025-0.14+31.75%
Jan 1, 2025-0.2-191.72%
Dec 1, 20240.22-53.97%
Nov 1, 20240.48-37.71%
Oct 1, 20240.77-21.36%
Sep 1, 20240.98-21.53%
Aug 1, 20241.25-10.82%
Jul 1, 20241.4-2.83%
Jun 1, 20241.44+2.53%
May 1, 20241.4+8.05%
Apr 1, 20241.3+2.14%
Mar 1, 20241.27—

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Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index?
Brave-Butters-Kelley dynamic factor leading index, a Chicago Fed academic composite of ~500 macro series.
▶How does Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index relate to recession indicators?
Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index is part of the Recession Indicators category. Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule, triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus.
▶How often is Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index updated?
Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index is updated once per month when the releasing agency publishes new data. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index data?
Convex sources Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index chart page?
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated monthly. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.