Recession Indicatorsmonthly
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Sahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970.
0.20%
1W +0.00%1M +0.00%3M -33.33%
Updated 1m agoUpdated just now
Recent Data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | 0.20% | -25.93% |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 0.27% | -10.00% |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 0.30% | -14.29% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 0.35% | -18.60% |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 0.43% | +86.96% |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 0.23% | +76.92% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 0.13% | +30.00% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 0.10% | -41.18% |
| Jun 1, 2025 | 0.17% | -37.04% |
| May 1, 2025 | 0.27% | — |
Related in Recession Indicators
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OECD Composite Leading Indicator
OECD CLI for the US — designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle.
Convex Recession Probability
Convex Recession Probability Index — composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.
Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)
Manufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft — core capex proxy.
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated monthly. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.