Recession Indicatorsdaily
Convex Recession Probability
Convex Recession Probability Index — composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.
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Related in Recession Indicators
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Sahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970.
Leading Index for US
Conference Board Leading Economic Index — composite of 10 leading indicators.
OECD Composite Leading Indicator
OECD CLI for the US — designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle.
Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)
Manufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft — core capex proxy.
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.