Leading Indicators

Annual real GDP growth rate for the United States from the IMF World Economic Outlook, via World Bank open data. The G7 growth benchmark; typically oscillates 1.5-3%.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Canada from the IMF World Economic Outlook. A resource-exporter tightly coupled to US demand and commodity prices.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Mexico from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Tightly integrated with US supply chains post-USMCA.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Brazil from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Largest Latin American economy, driven by commodity and agricultural export cycles.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Argentina from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally volatile; oscillates between stabilization programs and inflation crises.

Annual real GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom from the IMF World Economic Outlook. UK growth slowed structurally post-Brexit.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Germany from the IMF World Economic Outlook. The Eurozone anchor; manufacturing-export driven.

Annual real GDP growth rate for France from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Second-largest Eurozone economy, service-led.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Italy from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally lower growth than the Eurozone average.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Spain from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Highly cyclical with housing-driven booms and busts.

Annual real GDP growth rate for the Netherlands from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Small open economy anchored by port and services trade.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Sweden from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Small open economy with a freely floating krona.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Switzerland from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Franc safe-haven flows shape the growth trajectory.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Japan from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's fourth-largest economy; emerged from chronic deflation only recently.

Annual real GDP growth rate for China from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's second-largest economy; growth decelerated meaningfully since the mid-2010s.

Annual real GDP growth rate for India from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World's fastest-growing large economy.

Annual real GDP growth rate for South Korea from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Export-driven industrial economy; highly exposed to the semiconductor cycle.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Australia from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Resource-exporter with heavy exposure to the commodity cycle.

Annual real GDP growth rate for South Africa from the IMF World Economic Outlook. Structurally low-growth emerging economy with persistent power-grid constraints.

Annual real GDP growth rate for Turkey from the IMF World Economic Outlook. High-volatility emerging economy with recurring FX and inflation crises.

Annual headline CPI inflation rate for the United States (IMF WEO via World Bank). The Fed's dual mandate anchor; averages ~2% over cycles.

Annual headline CPI inflation rate for Canada (IMF WEO). The Bank of Canada targets 2% at the midpoint of a 1-3% band.

ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for the United States from the IMF WEO. Pre-pandemic NAIRU estimates sat around 4.0-4.5%.

ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Canada from the IMF WEO. Structurally close to the BoC's non-inflationary rate.

ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Mexico from the IMF WEO. Structurally low headline reading masks a large informal sector.

ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Brazil from the IMF WEO. Two-tier labor market with high informality.

ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Argentina from the IMF WEO. Formal-sector unemployment runs around 7-10% through cycles.

ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for South Africa from the IMF WEO. Highest structural jobless rate among major economies, routinely above 30%.

ILO-modeled annual unemployment rate for Turkey from the IMF WEO. Structurally around 10% across cycles.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the United States (IMF WEO). Chronic deficit around -3% of GDP reflects the reserve-currency status.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Canada (IMF WEO). Moves with commodity price cycles; typically small deficit.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Mexico (IMF WEO). Runs modest deficits in normal times, financed by remittances and FDI.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Brazil (IMF WEO). Agricultural and iron-ore surpluses partly offset service deficits.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Argentina (IMF WEO). Swings between crisis-driven deficit and post-crisis adjustment surplus.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the United Kingdom (IMF WEO). Chronic deficit around -3 to -4% reflects structural trade imbalance.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Germany (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus reflects manufacturing export strength.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for France (IMF WEO). Small deficit with structural tourism and luxury-goods surplus offsets.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Italy (IMF WEO). Persistent small surplus since the Eurozone crisis.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Spain (IMF WEO). Swung from large pre-GFC deficits to modest surpluses post-2012.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for the Netherlands (IMF WEO). Large persistent surplus from port and trade-hub intermediation.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Sweden (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by manufacturing exports.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Switzerland (IMF WEO). Large persistent surplus reflects banking and precision-industry exports.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Japan (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by overseas investment income and manufacturing trade.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for China (IMF WEO). Surplus narrowed post-2008 but remains sizable due to manufacturing exports.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for India (IMF WEO). Runs modest deficits, financed by FDI and IT-services exports.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for South Korea (IMF WEO). Persistent surplus driven by tech and auto exports.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Australia (IMF WEO). Historically chronic deficit; flipped to surplus post-2019 via commodity exports.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for South Africa (IMF WEO). Small deficits reliant on commodity prices and cross-border capital flows.

Annual current account balance as a share of GDP for Turkey (IMF WEO). Swings from wide deficits to narrower surpluses with each FX adjustment cycle.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the United States; amplitude-adjusted monthly index normalized to 100 on its long-run trend.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Canada; amplitude-adjusted monthly index normalized to 100 on trend. Tracks commodity-cycle turning points in tandem with US.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Mexico; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Mexican manufacturing PMIs feed heavily into this composite.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Brazil; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Commodity export prices and domestic credit are dominant inputs.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the United Kingdom; monthly amplitude-adjusted index normalized to 100 on its long-run trend.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Germany; the Eurozone turning-point bellwether. Industrial orders and Ifo are heavy inputs.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for France; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. INSEE business climate and industrial order books feed the series.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Italy; monthly amplitude-adjusted index, historically the most volatile G7 CLI.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Spain; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Tourism flows and construction order books drive turning points.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Japan; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Tankan surveys and shipment indices are heavy inputs.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Power generation and freight volumes are among the core components.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for India; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. PMI and capital-goods output drive the composite.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for South Korea; export orders and semiconductor inventories dominate the composite.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Australia; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Resource exports and housing starts are major inputs.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Indonesia; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. ASEAN bellwether composite tied to commodity and manufacturing flows.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for South Africa; monthly amplitude-adjusted index. Mining output and power availability weigh heavily.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for Turkey; monthly amplitude-adjusted index, highly sensitive to lira swings and external demand.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Group of Seven (US, Canada, Japan, UK, Germany, France, Italy). The advanced-economy turning-point gauge.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Group of Twenty. The broadest CLI aggregate, covering ~85% of global GDP.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for the euro-area G4 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). Captures ~75% of Eurozone GDP in a single series.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across NAFTA / USMCA (US, Canada, Mexico). Cross-border manufacturing cycle turning-point gauge.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator aggregated across the Major 5 Asian economies (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea). Asia-Pacific turning-point gauge.