Credit & Financial Stressweekly
Financial Conditions (NFCI)
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, positive = tighter than average.
The Financial Conditions (NFCI) is currently -0.5, last updated .
-0.5
1W -0.20%1M +0.00%3M -12.00%
Updated 18m agoStatistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for Financial Conditions (NFCI), blended across current macro regimes.
Start here
Financial conditions indexes are the Fed's dashboard. The Chicago Fed's NFCI blends over 100 inputs spanning equity volatility, credit spreads, funding stress, and leverage. Real yields across the TIPS curve reveal the true cost of capital after inflation, while liquidity measures (reverse repo, TGA, reserves) show whether the system is flush or stressed. Together they form the transmission belt from policy rate to real economy.
Updated just now
Latest analysis · Financial Conditions (NFCI)
AI Analysis
Jul 2, 2026However, BOJ normalization (42% HOT) is the single biggest tail risk — if BOJ hikes above 0.5%, the yen carry unwind could be violent (USD/JPY from 161 to 145-150 rapidly), tightening global financial conditions.
Used in Convex Intelligence Indices
Financial Conditions (NFCI) is a component or related input for:
Convex Recession Probability
A composite leading indicator that synthesizes five proven recession signals into a single 0-100 reading.
Convex Risk Appetite Index
A cross-asset risk appetite measure built from price ratios, what markets are actually doing, not what surveys say.
Narrative Velocity Index
How fast the story is changing, the leading indicator that captures media narrative shifts before they move markets.
Recent Data
Download CSV| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | -0.5 | -0.20% |
| Jun 19, 2026 | -0.5 | +0.00% |
| Jun 12, 2026 | -0.5 | +0.20% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -0.5 | +0.00% |
| May 29, 2026 | -0.5 | +0.59% |
| May 22, 2026 | -0.51 | -0.80% |
| May 15, 2026 | -0.5 | -0.20% |
| May 8, 2026 | -0.5 | -0.20% |
| May 1, 2026 | -0.5 | -1.21% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -0.5 | -3.34% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | -0.48 | -3.23% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | -0.46 | -3.11% |
| Apr 3, 2026 | -0.45 | +1.96% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -0.46 | +0.43% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -0.46 | +2.33% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | -0.47 | +3.08% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -0.49 | +5.16% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | -0.51 | +3.06% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | -0.53 | +2.47% |
| Feb 13, 2026 | -0.54 | +1.81% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | -0.55 | +1.11% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | -0.56 | +0.50% |
| Jan 23, 2026 | -0.56 | -0.22% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | -0.56 | — |
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Explore Further
Forecast 2026
Financial Conditions (NFCI) Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using regime implied approach.
Comparison
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Category
All Financial Conditions Data
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Frequently Asked Questions
▶What is Financial Conditions (NFCI)?
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, positive = tighter than average.
▶How does Financial Conditions (NFCI) relate to credit & financial stress?
Financial Conditions (NFCI) is part of the Credit & Financial Stress category. Financial conditions indexes are the Fed's dashboard. The Chicago Fed's NFCI blends over 100 inputs spanning equity volatility, credit spreads, funding stress, and leverage. Real yields across the TIPS curve reveal the true cost of capital after inflation, while liquidity measures (reverse repo, TGA, reserves) show whether the system is flush or stressed. Together they form the transmission belt from policy rate to real economy.
▶How often is Financial Conditions (NFCI) updated?
Financial Conditions (NFCI) is updated weekly, typically on the same day each week. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source Financial Conditions (NFCI) data?
Convex sources Financial Conditions (NFCI) data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the Financial Conditions (NFCI) chart page?
The Financial Conditions (NFCI) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated weekly. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.