Recession Probability vs VIX

Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.

Recession Indicatorsdaily

No data available

Volatilitydaily

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Why This Comparison Matters

The Convex Recession Probability Index synthesizes yield curve, labor, credit, and leading indicator data into a single recession gauge, while the VIX reflects short-term equity fear. When recession probability rises but the VIX stays low, equities may be complacent about macro risk. This comparison helps identify disconnects between fundamental and market-implied risk.

90-Day Statistics

Convex Recession Probability

No data available

VIX Index

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Explore Each Metric

Convex Recession Probability

Convex Recession Probability Index — composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.

VIX Index

CBOE Volatility Index — the "fear gauge" measuring S&P 500 expected volatility.

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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.