Economic Event · monthly
Retail Sales
Source: Census BureauRelease: ~15th of monthTime: 8:30 AM ET
The Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report captures consumer spending across retail categories. Released around the 15th of each month at 8:30 AM ET, covering the prior month.
Retail sales are a direct read on consumer spending, which drives ~70% of US GDP. Markets watch headline sales, the "control group" (which excludes autos, gas, building materials, and food services, it feeds directly into GDP calculations), and category detail. A strong control group number is typically the most important signal.
Why It Matters
Retail sales surprises can swing consumer-discretionary earnings expectations and drive large moves in XLY relative to XLP. The report takes on added importance during recession debates, a resilient consumer can sustain the expansion even amid weakening manufacturing.
What to Watch For
- •Headline retail sales month-over-month
- •Control group month-over-month
- •Revisions to prior month
- •Category detail: online, autos, restaurants
- •Inflation-adjusted (real) retail sales
Market Reaction Pattern
Strong control group: consumer discretionary up, rates up. Weak control group: defensives up, rates down, recession pricing increases.
Related Metrics
Other Economic Events
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
monthly · ~10th-15th of month
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
monthly · First Friday
FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision
8x/year · Varies, 8 scheduled meetings per year
Producer Price Index (PPI)
monthly · Day before or after CPI
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
quarterly · ~1 month after quarter end (Advance), then 2 revisions
ISM Manufacturing PMI
monthly · First business day of month
ISM Services PMI
monthly · Third business day of month
Initial Jobless Claims
weekly · Thursday
Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.