Past Release · Retail Sales
October 2025 Retail Sales Report
Wednesday, October 1, 2025
Retail Sales printed at 631,346, a -0.17% move from the prior reading of 632,395.
Headline Reading
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)→631,346
Oct 1
Prior
632,395
Absolute
1,049
Percent
-0.17%
What to Watch For
- •Headline retail sales month-over-month
- •Control group month-over-month
- •Revisions to prior month
- •Category detail: online, autos, restaurants
- •Inflation-adjusted (real) retail sales
Expected Market Reaction
Strong control group: consumer discretionary up, rates up. Weak control group: defensives up, rates down, recession pricing increases.
Related Assets Around the Release
Related Scenarios
What Happens When Consumer Confidence Collapses?
What happens when consumer sentiment craters? Does it actually predict spending? Historical analysis of confidence crashes and what they mean for markets.
What Happens When the Savings Rate Hits Zero?
What happens when Americans stop saving? The consumer spending cliff, credit card debt explosion, and what it means when the savings buffer is gone.
Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.