Economic Event · quarterly
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)Release: ~1 month after quarter end (Advance), then 2 revisionsTime: 8:30 AM ET
GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in the economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases quarterly GDP data in three vintages: Advance Estimate (~1 month after quarter end), Second Estimate, and Third/Final Estimate. Markets focus most on the Advance Estimate.
GDP is released at 8:30 AM ET. Markets watch headline growth, the inflation deflator (an alternative inflation read), the composition (consumption, investment, government, net exports), and revisions to the prior quarter. Real-time indicators like the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow give markets a running estimate of where GDP will print, reducing surprise magnitude at release.
Most Recent Release
January 1, 2026→
GDP release
$24B
+0.49% vs prior
Why It Matters
GDP surprises tend to move markets less than CPI or NFP because GDPNow tracks toward the print in real time. Still, major surprises, especially when the deflator diverges from CPI/PCE expectations, generate large moves. Q1 2022's negative GDP surprise launched the "recession" narrative even as labor markets remained strong, creating months of confusion about whether a recession had begun.
What to Watch For
- •Headline real GDP annualized
- •GDP deflator / GDP price index
- •Personal consumption expenditures growth
- •Private fixed investment
- •Inventory contribution
- •Net exports
- •Revisions to prior quarter
Market Reaction Pattern
Muted initial reaction since GDPNow pre-prints the number. Bigger reaction when deflator diverges from expectations. Sustained GDP weakness over multiple quarters drives cyclical sector rotation and rate cut pricing.
Release Archive(36)
| Release Date | Value | Change vs Prior |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | $24B | +0.49% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | $24B | +0.12% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | $24B | +1.08% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | $24B | +0.95% |
| Jan 1, 2025 | $24B | -0.16% |
| Oct 1, 2024 | $24B | +0.46% |
| Jul 1, 2024 | $23B | +0.82% |
| Apr 1, 2024 | $23B | +0.89% |
| Jan 1, 2024 | $23B | +0.21% |
| Oct 1, 2023 | $23B | +0.84% |
| Jul 1, 2023 | $23B | +1.15% |
| Apr 1, 2023 | $23B | +0.63% |
| Jan 1, 2023 | $22B | +0.72% |
| Oct 1, 2022 | $22B | +0.69% |
| Jul 1, 2022 | $22B | +0.72% |
| Apr 1, 2022 | $22B | +0.16% |
| Jan 1, 2022 | $22B | -0.25% |
| Oct 1, 2021 | $22B | +1.72% |
| Jul 1, 2021 | $22B | +0.83% |
| Apr 1, 2021 | $21B | +1.70% |
| Jan 1, 2021 | $21B | +1.40% |
| Oct 1, 2020 | $21B | +1.13% |
| Jul 1, 2020 | $21B | +7.76% |
| Apr 1, 2020 | $19B | -7.88% |
| Jan 1, 2020 | $21B | -1.32% |
| Oct 1, 2019 | $21B | +0.68% |
| Jul 1, 2019 | $21B | +1.17% |
| Apr 1, 2019 | $21B | +0.84% |
| Jan 1, 2019 | $20B | +0.62% |
| Oct 1, 2018 | $20B | +0.14% |
| Jul 1, 2018 | $20B | +0.62% |
| Apr 1, 2018 | $20B | +0.53% |
| Jan 1, 2018 | $20B | +0.81% |
| Oct 1, 2017 | $20B | +1.13% |
| Jul 1, 2017 | $20B | +0.79% |
| Apr 1, 2017 | $20B | , |
Related Metrics
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
monthly · ~10th-15th of month
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
monthly · First Friday
FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision
8x/year · Varies, 8 scheduled meetings per year
Producer Price Index (PPI)
monthly · Day before or after CPI
ISM Manufacturing PMI
monthly · First business day of month
ISM Services PMI
monthly · Third business day of month
Retail Sales
monthly · ~15th of month
Initial Jobless Claims
weekly · Thursday
Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.