CONVEX
Past Release · Retail Sales

July 2025 Retail Sales Report

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Retail Sales printed at 628,747, a +0.74% move from the prior reading of 624,146.

628,747
Jul 1
Prior
624,146
Absolute
+4,601
Percent
+0.74%

What to Watch For

  • Headline retail sales month-over-month
  • Control group month-over-month
  • Revisions to prior month
  • Category detail: online, autos, restaurants
  • Inflation-adjusted (real) retail sales

Expected Market Reaction

Strong control group: consumer discretionary up, rates up. Weak control group: defensives up, rates down, recession pricing increases.

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